Economists say several factors have caused retail meat prices to jump

Published 9:45 am Tuesday, December 28, 2021

A new report outlines the factors that have contributed to the rapid increase of retail meat prices.

From January 2020 through November 2021, retail prices have increased 27.3% for beef, 16.8% for pork and 16.4% for chicken, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

“Given the low food inflation rates in recent memory, it is no wonder that current meat prices have been causing sticker shock across the country,” economists at the National Pork Producers Council, Iowa State University and North Carolina State University said in their report.

Retail pork prices only increased an average of 2% a year from 2000 to 2019.

The report found both pork producer and pork packer margins are near the five-year average, but the retail price spread for pork has recently widened.

“The increase in retail prices this fall at a time when wholesale and farm-level prices were falling was likely driven by a lagged response time to high wholesale prices during the summer, increased transportation costs, supply bottlenecks and delays and increased labor costs in retail outlets and distribution centers,” the report said.

Retailers are typically slow to adjust prices to reflect changes in their input costs, but it appears likely they are passing those extra costs on to consumers, the report said.

“Perhaps the greatest challenge to all food supply chains is a lack of available labor. Despite rising wages, all industries are struggling to fill open positions,” the report said.

As of October, there were more than 11 million job openings in the U.S., and the civilian labor force is about 2.4 million less than in January 2020.

“A lack of available workers throughout the pork industry has been (a) longstanding issue that was made worse by the pandemic, and is one of the reasons packing plants have had capacity issues,” the report said.

The tight and competitive labor market is impacting every aspect of the pork supply chain, including the transportation of hogs and pork.

Another issue is the 2.5% loss in pork processing capacity resulting from a federal court order eliminating a USDA provision that allowed faster line speeds at six major packing plants. That order went into effect July 1.

“In addition to widespread labor shortages and reduced packing capacity, the pork industry is also dealing with transportation bottlenecks and higher prices for fuel, energy and packing materials,” the report said.

“This report shows there are numerous issues affecting pork prices, but increased profits —  whether at the retail, wholesale or farm level — are likely not a significant contributor to the rising prices,” Jen Sorenson, president of National Pork Producers Council, said in a press release.

The economists said it is difficult to predict how long the challenges behind food inflation will persist.

“Though there are significant production, processing and distribution challenges, there are likely no permanent, structural barriers in the way of getting back to cheaper food. It is unclear whether the same can be said about energy prices, wage inflation and other current challenges,” the report said.

If immigration policy and labor reform aren’t addressed, labor will continue to be a limiting factor in food and pork production, it said.

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