BOISE — Arrival of the high-risk period for large Western wildfires could be delayed in spots thanks to heavy rain and snow this winter and spring.

“We have fewer concerns than we did in 2020 and 2021, for sure,” said Nick Nauslar, Predictive Services meteorologist for the National Interagency Fire Center. “A lot of it depends on how the fuel loading interacts with the fire weather we get this summer.

In the Northwest, variables include “how the snow comes off and what sort of weather we get in the summer in terms of having near to above-normal rangeland fire potential,” he said.

Parts of the West have seen above-normal growth of grasses and other fine fuels at lower elevations, Nauslar said.

Damage from downed trees and masses of snow in California and parts of the Intermountain West is yet to be determined.

“We are somewhat uncertain where we have above-normal fine-fuel loads,” he said. How and when these loads impact fire risk depends on the weather.

Near- to below-normal precipitation is forecast into early summer, according to NIFC’s large-fire outlook for April through July.

The Northwest’s risk of large wildfires is expected to be around normal until July, when above-normal risk is forecast for parts of central and southeast Oregon as well as central Washington. In those areas, factors include a buildup of light, dead fuels along with Central Oregon’s drought.

Late spring and early summer should bring above-normal temperatures to the Northwest.

Near- to below-normal fire risk is projected for Northern California for June and July, according to the report.

In Southern California, risk of big wildfires is below normal across much of the Sierra Nevada in June and July.

In Idaho, an above-average supply of carryover fuels in the southwest will bring above-normal risk of large fires by July, according to the report. Snowpack has been below normal in the northern panhandle region.