The spring flush is upon us, but farm milk tanks are not exactly bulging.

The Agriculture Department’s preliminary data shows March output at 19.8 billion pounds, up 2.1 billion from February, but only 90 million pounds or 0.5% above March 2022, and less than the 1.1% increase in February.

The 24-State March total, at 18.9 billion pounds, was up 1.9 billion pounds from February and up 0.6% from a year ago. The February 50-State total was revised up 51 million pounds, while the 24 State total was revised up 48 million pounds.

Milk output in the first quarter totaled 56.8 million pounds, up 1% from 2022, with cow numbers at 9.42 million head, up 20,000 from fourth quarter 2022 and 40,000 more than first quarter 2022.

Farmers added cows, despite the high feed prices and falling milk income. Cow numbers totaled 9.435 million, up 6,000 head from the February count, which was revised up 12,000 head, 28,000 more than in January, and up 31,000 from a year ago. This makes for the largest dairy herd since August 2021. The 24-State count was also up 6,000 from February and 44,000 above a year ago, largest since July 2021.

Output per cow averaged 2,099 pounds, up 3 pounds or 0.1% from March 2022.

California, battered by heavy rains and flooding in February and March, saw March milk drop to 3.6 billion pounds, down 75 million pounds or 2.0% from a year ago. Output per cow fell 45 pounds, far outweighing the 1,000 cow increase.

Wisconsin output totaled 2.7 billion pounds, up 11 million pounds or 0.4% from a year ago, thanks to a 15-pound gain per cow offsetting the loss of 4,000 cows.

Texas was up 4.7%, thanks to 17,000 more cows and a 45-pound gain per cow. The large fire at a dairy near Dimmitt April 10 claimed some 18,000 cows. The cow loss will register in next month’s report. However, milk output may or may not, as milk in the state was already being dumped due to the excessive supply.

Idaho milk was up 3.1%, on 15,000 more cows and a 15-pound gain per cow.

Florida again registered the biggest loss, down 5.5%. Michigan was up 2.9%, Minnesota was up 1.2%, New York was up 2.1%, and New Mexico was down 4.4%.

Oregon was down 2.6%, on a loss of 3,000 cows but output per cow was unchanged.

Pennsylvania was off 0.2%, while South Dakota showed the biggest increase, up 7%.

Washington state was down 1.6% on 5,000 fewer cows. Output per cow was up 5 pounds.

StoneX reported that milk components improved in March after being weak in January and February. Combined fat and protein was up 0.7% from last year after being up just 0.3% in February.

Culling stays strong

Dairy culling continues to outpace that of a year ago. The latest Livestock Slaughter report shows an estimated 306,100 head sent to slaughter under federal inspection in March, up 39,600 head from February, and 8,900 or 2.3% above March 2022.

The week ending April 8 saw 61,700 head go to slaughter, down 5,100 from the previous week, but 800 or 1.3% more than a year ago. Year to date, 933,200 dairy cows have been culled, up 33,400 or 3.7% above a year ago.

Lots of cheese, lower prices

CME block Cheddar fell to $1.7450 per pound last Thursday but closed Friday at $1.75, 2.50 cents lower on the week, fourth week of decline, and 64.25 cents below a year ago when it peaked at $2.3925.

The barrels reversed three weeks of loss, finishing Friday at $1.5525, up 4 cents on the week, 81.75 cents below a year ago, and 19.75 cents below the blocks.

Sales totaled 29 cars of block, highest weekly sum since the week of May 31, 2021. That was overshadowed by a whopping 85 loads of barrel cheese sold, up from 70 the previous week, and the highest since Dec. 16, 2017; 26 loads were traded Wednesday alone, highest one-day total since Jun. 21, 2018, and Friday was the fifth time this year that over 20 loads were traded in a single session.

The blocks were offered 7 cents lower Monday and lost 1.75 cents Tuesday on a trade, falling to $1.6625, lowest CME price since Nov. 16, 2021, as traders awaited the afternoon’s March Cold Storage report.

The barrels lost 2.25 cents Monday on a sale and dove 5.50 cents lower Tuesday on 15 trades, falling to $1.4750, lowest since Nov. 18, 2021, and 18.75 cents below the blocks. 16 offers went uncovered.

The cheese market was encouraged last week by an announcement that McDonalds will enhance its burger lineup by adding more cheese, meanwhile Midwest cheesemakers continue to report widely available milk, according to Dairy Market News. Mid-week spot milk prices remained from $11 to $4 under Class. Cheese demand is “steady to strong,” says DMN, but there is near term concern regarding inventory levels.

Cheese has strong to steady demand from western retail and food service purchasers. Inventories through April remain sold out for some. Asian demand is reported as strong by some while others say Asian purchasers are buying from other sources. Milk volumes are plentiful, enabling maximum to strong production.

Cash butter climbed to $2.4025 per pound last Wednesday, highest in four weeks, but closed Friday at $2.40, up 7.25 cents on the week and 26.75 cents below a year ago, with 16 sales reported for the week.

Monday’s and Tuesday’s butter was unchanged.

Central butter demand has softened seasonally the past few weeks, says DMN. Churning is still very busy though cream was less available last week. Multiples ticked up and some expect further cream price increases near term, says DMN.

Cream is plentiful in the West, with strong to steady cream demand continuing as cream multiples moved higher. Strong to steady butter production continues but it’s moving well, with a steady pull on inventories. Export demand is steady to lighter due competitive prices from European and Asian markets, however, Canadian purchases increased last week.

After falling to $1.1225 per pound last Monday, Grade A nonfat dry milk found itself at its lowest price since Feb. 24, 2021. Last Tuesday’s GDT reversed that and the powder closed Friday at $1.1650, up 3.50 cents on the week but 59 cents below a year ago, with 7 sales on the board.

The powder was unchanged Monday and Tuesday.

Dry whey slipped to 35 cents per pound last Monday, then headed back up to 38.25 cents Wednesday, but closed Friday at 36.25 cents, unchanged on the week and 27.25 cents below a year ago. There were 35 sales on the week, down from 47 the week before.

Monday’s whey dropped 3 cents, with 15 loads exchanging hands, and fell to 33.25 cents per pound, lowest since Jan. 31, 2023, and was unchanged Tuesday.

Class I up 72 cents

The May Federal order Class I base milk price was announced by the Agriculture Department at $19.57 per hundredweight, up 72 cents from April but $5.88 below May 2022. It equates to $1.68 per gallon, down from $2.19 a year ago. The five month Class I average stands at $20.12, down from $22.81 a year ago and compares to $15.70 in 2021.

Fluid sales down 3.2%

Fluid milk sales were back to their old ways in February. The Agriculture Department’s latest data shows packaged fluid sales totaled 3.4 billion pounds, down 3.2% from February 2022, following a 0.6% slippage in January. A general rule of thumb says a 4% decline in fluid milk sales means about 1% of milk nationally will end up in manufacturing instead of in the jug.

Conventional product sales totaled 3.1 billion pounds, down 3.1% from a year ago. Organic products, at 218 million pounds, were down 3.2%.

Whole milk sales totaled 1.2 billion pounds, up 0.1% from a year ago, up 0.7% year to date, and represented 34.3% of total milk sales for the two months.

Skim milk sales, at 173 million pounds, were down 8.0% from a year ago and 7.0% below a year ago.

Total packaged fluid sales for the two months amounted to 7.2 billion pounds, down 1.8% from 2022. Conventional product sales totaled 6.7 billion pounds, down 2.0%. Organic products, at 476 million pounds, were up 1.0%, and represented 6.7% of total milk sales for the period.

Pulse shows strength

Tuesday’s Global Dairy Trade Pulse auction saw 2.2 million pounds of Fonterra whole milk powder sold, up 200,000 pounds from the April 11 Pulse, and at $3,105 per metric ton, up $100. Whole milk powder was up 1.0% in the April 18 GDT.