Northwest cherry growers predict the 2023 crop volume will fall slightly shy of average.

Growers from the five major Northwest cherry-producing states — Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Utah and Montana — met at the annual five-state meeting in Richland, Wash., the third week of May and came up with their crop estimate.

The growers predict that the cherry crop will weigh in at 19.9 million 20-pound boxes, slightly below the 10-year average of 21 million boxes.

The past few years have been difficult for the cherry industry, so growers welcome a return to a more average-size crop. Last year’s crop was only 13.3 million boxes. If the 2023 crop reaches 19.9 million boxes as forecast, it will be a 50% increase year-over-year.

“We’re looking forward to a normal year after two very challenging years,” said Brenda Thomas, a cherry grower and president of Orchard View Farms in the Dalles, Ore.

Because the spring started cool and wet, this year’s bloom timing was 14 to 20 days behind the 2022 bloom pattern. In a statement, Northwest Cherry Growers predicted the earliest cherry harvest in the Northwest will fall on or near June 15.

In some pockets, however, harvest may start slightly earlier. Brianna Shales, marketing director of Stemilt Growers, a large cherry producer, said harvest in some orchards could start as early as between June 10 to 12.

According to Northwest Cherry Growers, cherries in the early and mid-season districts appear to have set a big, beautiful crop. Late season growers expect to have a more moderate to average crop. Although the late-season districts may have slightly lighter crop loads than the early-to-mid-season ones, growers expect great size and sugars.

The early-season volume on Northwest trees will likely help cherry-focused retailers smoothly transition from this year’s California crop, the association predicted.

Although the cherries look good, the association reminded its members that it’s still too early to know how the final crop will turn out: “Mother Nature is still the largest shareholder in our crop, and we will have to see how the rest of the growing season progresses.”

Pacific Northwest tree fruit growers optimistic about this year’s crops