Mark Anderson expects the crew at his Oregon turkey farm to be extra busy the Friday before Thanksgiving.

“We are starting at 5 a.m. and we are processing birds that entire day, probably for 12 hours straight,” he told the Capital Press.

Up to 1,000 people will show up on the farm to pick up their bird in the days leading up to Thanksgiving, he said.

Anderson pasture-raises turkeys, chickens, geese and ducks on Champoeg Farm in St. Paul, Ore.

He produces 3,000 to 4,000 holiday turkeys, and 2,000 to 3,000 turkeys to be turned into breast roasts and ground turkey.

Some wholesale orders began shipping the week of Nov. 13.

Anderson expects to receive a price of about $5.99 per pound.

He raised 3,000 chickens this year, and might expand as high as 35,000 next year to tap into a growing market for pasture-raised, local broilers for mid-sized casual fast food restaurants.

He raised 50 geese, and typically raises several hundred ducks.

More people are turning to local turkeys, Anderson said.

“Every season is growing,” Anderson said. “There’s a lot of people wanting to eat better, eat healthier. … We’re just trying to figure out how to do it better.”

Steady demand

The average price for an 8- to 16-pound turkey typically served for Thanksgiving was $1.27 per pound in August, 22% lower than the same time last year, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation.

The lower cost is due to a drop in avian influenza cases and the recovery of the U.S. turkey population, according to the federation.

Demand for turkeys is steady during the holidays — about 40 million birds for Thanksgiving and 20 million for Christmas, said Joel Brandenberger, president of the National Turkey Federation in Washington, D.C.

“The supply’s never really been an issue,” Brandenberger said.

The COVID-19 pandemic created supply chain issues and highly pathogenic avian influenza cost some production last year, about 8 million to 9 million birds.

The major avian influenza outbreak had largely played out by March or April this year, totaling 10 million turkeys lost. There were some isolated outbreaks since then, at a lower rate than 2022.

Ultimately, turkeys were present for the market, Brandenberger said.

“Almost no matter what the circumstance is, the industry’s always been able to deliver a discounted, featured turkey to consumers,” he said. “There’s never been a shortage or supply run at Thanksgiving or Christmas, and I’ve been with the federation for 32-plus years.”

Contract pricing

Contract prices and delivery to freezers and cold storage warehouses are typically locked in well in advance, he said. Up to 90% of turkeys are grown on production contracts, so processors own the birds throughout their life cycle, contracting with farmers to raise them. The contract price is usually pre-negotiated between processor and farmer, Brandenberger said.

“Most growers are insulated from swings in the wholesale market,” he said.

“Wholesale turkey prices have almost nothing to do with retail prices in the supermarket at any Thanksgiving,” he said. That’s because stores offer discounts, particularly for frozen whole turkeys, such as 49 cents per pound or a free turkey for customers who buy $100 worth of groceries.

“They’re such heavy promotions and the product is so important for all supermarkets’ other sales, that what’s going on in the wholesale world never bears much resemblance, especially in the frozen market,” he said.

Non-holiday demand

About 200 million turkeys are produced each year, Brandenberger said. Holiday sales are up to 25% of the total market.

“Which is intriguing — it’s actually interesting to measure the growth of turkey consumption at other times of the year,” he said.

In the 1970s, about half of turkey consumption was a whole bird in the fourth quarter of the year.

Today, ground turkey and turkey deli meat are extremely popular year-round, he said. Turkey tenderloins and fair-style turkey drumsticks are gaining in popularity.

When Brandenberger started with the federation in 1990, 1% of turkey production was exported.

Exports have been as high as 12%, and settled to about 7%, he said. More than half of exports go to Mexico, where the dark meat is used in a lot of sausage products.

Other overseas customers include Central America, South America, the Caribbean, Asia, the Pacific Rim and even Canada, which has its own “robust” turkey industry.

Good biosecurity

The biggest need is industry certainty about regulators and trade partners’ expectations, Brandenberger said.

“We need to update trade agreements to more effectively respond to highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks,” he said. “Our members are continuously looking for ways to produce products that consumers can cook with ease and confidence that any pathogens are addressed.”

The industry is making “big strides,” Brandenberger said.

A 2015 outbreak showed farmers and USDA that more biosecurity was needed, he said. It paid off during the most recent outbreak, when the virus was circulating more widely in the wild bird population.

The improvements farmers made since 2015 “kept this past year’s outbreak from being so much larger than it was,” he said, also pointing to coordination between USDA and state and local governments.

“As tough as it was for every individual grower that was hit, industry-wide it shows that a lot of what was done in 2015, everybody learned a lot,” Brandenberger said.

Turkey pardons

Turkey pardons

After 32 years with the National Turkey Federation, the national Thanksgiving turkey presentation at the White House “never ceases to be cool,” president Joel Brandenberger says, when asked his favorite part of the job.

“Every year you go, it’s a phenomenal experience,” he said.

President George Bush was the first president to pardon a turkey for the ceremony.

“Each of them has added their own unique twist, something new to the event,” he said.

Brandenberger shares his thoughts on the ceremony:

https://www.capitalpress.com/opinion/columns/commentary-presidential-pardon-about-more-than-turkeys/article_5566531a-781e-11ee-8f8a-a315bfd23b4a.html