PORTLAND — Oregon’s population ticked upward again in 2023, but the new population estimates by Portland State University, released Monday, Nov. 27, also paint a different picture for many counties in Eastern Oregon.

The preliminary estimates indicate that population growth has reverted to expected patterns: gains in Central Oregon and the Portland metropolitan area, a slowdown in the mid-Willamette Valley and Southern Oregon (except for Klamath County), and losses elsewhere in the state, including Union, Baker, Grant and Wallowa counties. Exceptions are in Morrow and Umatilla counties, which have grown.

As a whole, Oregon’s population grew by 0.53%, from 4,267,598 to 4,290,225 people, according to PSU’s estimates.

Population estimates for Eastern Oregon cities

Of Oregon’s 36 counties, 26 of them gained people in 2023 and 10 lost people.

Union County communities grow, except La Grande

Union County showed a 0.49% decrease from 2022 to 2023, from 25,974 to 25,847 people, according to PSU’s estimates.

La Grande declined more than 8%, from 13,953 to 12,823.

La Grande does not independently collect population data, but relies on the information reported by the state of Oregon, according to City Manager Robert Strope. A population decline could have a direct impact on the city since the data determine the amount of funding La Grande receives through shared revenue from the state.

“Any time populations dip it can be cause for concern,” Strope said.

La Grande does not have any specific plans to help drive population growth, but Strope said the city staff and council members will continue working to ensure La Grande is an attractive place to live. This includes focusing on the economic development of the city because “jobs drive population.”

While La Grande experienced a population decline, the PSU estimations revealed that the other cities in Union County saw population growth anywhere from 7.96% to 9.7%. Island City, Imbler and Cove each grew around 8% while Summerville, Union and North Powder all saw a roughly 8.5% increase in population.

Elgin experienced the largest growth — increasing 9.7% from 1,742 to 1,911.

Mayor Stanley “James” Johnson said he believes this increase is likely due to the completion of the latest subdivision and also the Dollar General bringing in jobs. City Administrator Brock Eckstein attributed the growth to Elgin being a great place to live for families.

“We’re very excited about the growth,” he said.

Law enforcement and academic success are two big draws for families, according to Eckstein. Elgin has a large law enforcement force for a city of its size due to the contract the city maintains with the Union County Sheriff’s Office. Youth have found academic success in the school system, and the high school’s agriculture program helps attract students who are interested in pursuing a career in farming or ranching.

Having affordable housing options has been a goal for the city, said Eckstein, who referred to the city’s recently taken steps toward a 30-acre annexation.

“I, as mayor, would like to see Elgin expand a little,” Johnson said. “Of course, I’m not for a lot of growth because I’ve lived here my whole life and I don’t like to see that.”

The city is working to get a grant that would explore urban growth boundary expansion. The grant would help the city determine how much growth the existing infrastructure and services could support. They will assess city services, like the water and sewer infrastructure, as well as emergency response capabilities like the ambulance and fire departments.

“We would like to see growth, but that growth boundary assessment will have to be done before we can do anything,” Johnson said.

Population estimates for Oregon and Eastern Oregon counties

Morrow, Umatilla counties’ populations increase

Morrow County had the second-largest percentage increase in population in the state — a jump of 1.76%, adding 222 to boost its total to 12,852.

The populations of the five cities in the county — Boardman, Irrigon, Heppner, Lexington and Ione — all grew, though some by single digits.

Ione went from 334 to 337, Lexington added seven residents to grow to 240, and Heppner increased to 1,211 from 1,206. Irrigon moved up from 2,030 to 2,057.

Boardman, the largest town in the county, had more robust growth, increasing 3.1% from 4,297 to 4,432.

Umatilla County gained 427 residents, an increase of 0.53%, for a new total of 80,888.

That growth came from Umatilla and Hermiston, the only cities in the county to have population increases.

Umatilla grew from 7,459 to 7,626, an increase of 2.24%, while Hermiston grew 0.5% from 19,859 to 19,961.

The other cities and towns in the county lost residents.

Milton-Freewater, dropped from 7,454 to 7,421, Stanfield lost five residents to land at 2,256, and Weston fell from 700 to 680.

Pendleton’s population decreased 0.8%, dropping from 16,785 to 16,651.

Other Eastern Oregon counties

Baker County’s population decreased slightly, by less than 1%, from 16,946 on July 1, 2022, to 16,843 on July 1, 2023.

Baker City’s population dropped by an even smaller rate, 0.3%, from 10,086 to 10,054.

None of the county’s other incorporated cities fluctuated by more than 1.6%.

Haines’ population is 383, up 1 from last year. Halfway is home to 358 residents, the same as a year ago. Huntington dropped from 509 residents to 501. Richland and Sumpter each lost three residents, according to PSU estimates, leaving Sumpter with 199 residents and Richland with 163. Unity remained at 40 residents.

Grant County

Grant County continued to lose population over the past year, according to the latest estimates from the PSU Population Research Center. As of July, PSU researchers estimate, Grant County had 7,298 residents, down 142, or 1.91%, from 7,440 in July 2022.

The headcount also fell in six of the county’s incorporated communities.

John Day’s estimated population in July was 1,614, according to PSU’s data, down from 1,635 the year before. That’s a drop of 21 residents, or 1.28%, from the previous July.

Prairie City’s population dropped from 820 in July 2022 to 801 in July 2023, a loss of 19 residents, or 2.32%. Canyon City’s numbers fell 2%, from 684 to 670, a loss of 14 people. Mount Vernon went from 566 to 555, dropping by 11 residents, or 1.94%.

Long Creek lost three residents, shrinking from 179 to 176, a 1.68% drop. Monument’s population also went down by three, from 119 to 116, which equated to a 2.52% loss.

Only two incorporated Grant County towns grew last year, and not by much. Seneca welcomed two new residents, going from 171 to 173 in population for a 1.17% growth rate, while Dayville added one, growing 0.7% from 140 to 141 residents.

Wallowa County

Wallowa County and all four of its incorporated cities lost population over the last year, according to the latest estimates.

As of July, PSU researchers estimate, Wallowa County had 7,472 residents, down from 7,626 in July 2022.

It works out to be a decrease of about 2.02%. That was the largest percentage decline among all of Oregon’s counties, according to the PSU numbers.

The decline was driven by drops in the county’s cities, which each experienced a decline of 3-4% from 2022 to 2023, according to the PSU numbers:

• Wallowa lost 34 residents, from 816 to 782, a decline of about 4.2%.

• Joseph also experienced a 4.2% loss, dipping from 1,155 residents to 1,107.

• Lostine fell from 247 to 237 residents, a loss of about 4%.

• Enterprise, the county’s most-populous city, fell from 2,125 residents to 2,053. The loss of 72 people represents a 3.4% decline.

The PSU numbers suggest that the number of people living in unincorporated areas of the county rose by about 0.3% from 2022 to 2023, from 3,283 residents to 3,293. But that slight increase wasn’t nearly enough to make up for the losses in the county’s cities.

Tracking the numbers

The estimates by PSU’s Population Research Center are important because Oregon uses them to share state proceeds from liquor sales and tobacco taxes, among others, with cities and counties. Estimates are made final in mid-December.

The 2022 numbers drew unusual attention because they conflicted with estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, which reported that Oregon’s population decreased slightly in 2022 — for the first time in decades. The Census Bureau is scheduled to release 2023 estimates by state in December, and by county in March.

Except for three years in the 1980s — when many timber mills shut down, statewide unemployment rates reached 12% and the state’s economy took seven years to recover — Oregon’s population has increased every year since World War II.

The population estimates also are important because with in-state deaths now outnumbering births, Oregon relies on in-migration from other states for net population growth. The numbers are used by the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis, which prepares the state’s quarterly economic and revenue forecasts.

State economists discussed the implications of population trends on Nov. 15, when they presented the most recent forecast to members of the House and Senate revenue committees in Salem.

Senior economist Josh Lehner had this statement on the latest PSU estimates:

“Our office’s baseline forecast calls for a modest return of population growth in the years ahead. These 2023 PSU estimates broadly fit that pattern, albeit after revisions, they are slightly below our forecast as it used the previous 2022 numbers as the base, but not enough to really alter the outlook.

“Given deaths outnumber births in Oregon, our state’s population would decline tomorrow without migration. It will be important to track these estimates from PSU and the upcoming Census release to gauge the underlying, demographic fundamentals of the state’s economy.”