TWIN FALLS, Idaho — Hay prices in Idaho started the year really hot, with some prices north of $300 a ton, but since then they’ve come down to about $200 a ton.

A snowy winter was followed by first, second and third cuttings getting rained on, and input costs and inflation had a huge effect on producers in 2023, said Joseph Sagers, University of Idaho Extension educator for Jefferson County, during the university’s Idaho Ag Outlook seminar.

Final production numbers aren’t in, but USDA’s latest estimate puts Idaho alfalfa production at 4.8 million tons in 2023, up 7.9% from last year. All hay produced in Idaho is estimated at 5.6 million tons, up 4.4% year over year, according to USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service.

Alfalfa production in the U.S. in 2023 is estimated at 52.7 million tons. U.S. all hay production is estimated at 122.8 million tons, an increase of 9% from 2022.

Idaho grows the most alfalfa hay in the U.S., and typically produces about 10% of the national alfalfa supply. But producers need to make sure they’re shooting for supreme or premium quality to maximize profits, Sagers said.

Hay exports

Exports are also important, providing stability and a floor for hay prices, he said.

Alfalfa became the dominant hay export in about 2013, and the U.S. exports about twice as much alfalfa as other hay. Exports of other hay have leveled off, he said.

Most of the exported hay goes to China and Japan, which represent about half the market. China has been heavily investing in its domestic dairy industry the last few years and needs the alfalfa for feed, he said.

Milk prices

Milk prices have a lot of influence on Idaho’s hay prices. Right now, they’re around $17 or $18 a hundredweight, with breakeven in the $16.50 cwt. range, he said.

Milk prices spiked in 2022 at about $25 cwt. But everything that goes up must come down, and prices dropped in 2023, he said.

January 2023 milk prices were high, but they tanked in the summer, he said.

“Milk prices have a huge influence on our hay prices,” he said.

Hay prices were high in 2022, but started coming down to north of $220 a ton. He thinks alfalfa and other hay prices will straddle the prices of the last two years.

Range conditions

Pasture and range conditions also influence hay prices as they affect available forage. More than 40% of U.S. pasture and range was rated poor to very poor in 2022 because of drought. Conditions are becoming more normal, with fewer poor range conditions in the western U.S., he said.

The drought that affected range and pasture conditions also affects hay production. About 36% of U.S. hay acres are currently in drought, with a lot in the South and Midwest, but Idaho does not have a lot of areas in drought, he said.

Another factor affecting hay prices is the size of the cattle herd, and it’s currently at the lower end of the range, he said.

The Livestock Marketing Information Center predicts the national average price of hay will decline over the next two years to about $235 a ton in 2024 and about $200 a ton in 2025.