TOKYO — Threats of a 25 percent U.S. import tariff and equivalent retaliatory tariffs from Canada and Mexico have created a climate of uncertainty among U.S. agricultural exporters.

Some companies and associations are planning ways to deal with the tariffs becoming a reality, while others are hoping they won’t.

With head offices in Washington, D.C., the Organic Trade Association (OTA) promotes organic agriculture across the U.S.

OTA co-CEO Matthew Dillon said there is a ceiling of price that consumers are willing to pay for organic food. “Tariffs create inflationary pressure,” Dillon said.

Dillon acknowledged some countries impose huge import tariffs, and it is understandable one wants to deal with that.

“But I don’t think a trade war is the answer,” he said.

Tariffs going into effect could be an opportunity to increase acreage however, Dillon said. For example, the U.S.’s exports of U.S. organic soybeans being hit by the threatened tariffs would be an incentive to grow more of that product.

“But we can’t do that with cacao or coffee,” Dillon said.

Smithfield, Virginia-Based Smithfield Foods international sales manager Jesse Jacoby said his pork producing and packaging company does expect a negative impact if the tariffs go into effect.

Smithfield does not sell much to Canada, but does have a big trade with Mexico, which will be hurt by retaliatory tariffs.

The company’s second-quarter trade with Mexico will start soon. “We will understand the effect on our trade in a week or two,” Jacoby said.

Smithfield is also thinking of shifting exports to Japan. The company has a big bone-in ham production, but Japan basically wants boneless ham.

“We are thinking of selling additional boneless ham to Japan, or using that product to make sausages,” Jacoby said.

Dillon and Jacoby spoke to the Capital Press at the FOODEX international food fair, held March 11 to 14 in the Japanese capital.

In its 50th annual edition, with a break in 2020 because of COVID, the fair hosted this year 949 Japanese and 1981 foreign exhibitors.

Massachusetts-headquartered co-operative Ocean Spray produces cranberry sauce, fruit juices, fruit snacks and dried cranberries.

The co-op’s more than 700 members grow cranberries in Oregon and Washington State as well as Florida, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Wisconsin and Canada, and even Chile.

Asia Director Eric Wang noted 40 percent of Ocean Spray’s farmers are in Canada. Cranberry imports from the country could be hit by a 25 percent U.S.  tariff.

And juice exports to Canada and Mexico would then also face tariffs of 25 percent. “It’s quite difficult, Wang said.

Yuba City, California-based marketing co-operative Sunsweet Growers manufactures a variety of dried fruit and juices.

The co-op is best known for prunes however, controlling over two-thirds of the fruit’s market worldwide. “We export around the world,” Asia and Japan international sales director Dean Horike said.

Exports to China previously suffered from a 30 percent tariff, which has been raised another 10 percent. And tariff threats have become a major worry over export plans to Canada and Mexico.

Sunsweet Growers has a customer in South Korea, and Horike said he heard talks about the U.S. also slapping a tariff on the country’s exports. “That’s word in the streets,” he said.

New Ulm, Minn.-based Associated Milk Producers’ 850 farm families produce milk primarily turned to cheese, plus some butter and dairy powder.

The co-operative’s sales and marketing senior vice president Marshall Reece remarked the U.S. produces more dairy than it consumes, so it needs to export a lot of it.

Reece said one spends years developing relationships overseas. However important relationships are though, price and quality are also important.

“If tariffs are going to force us out of the market, that will force our customers to switch” to competing exporters, Reece said.

Reece understands the U.S. administration is negotiating many things. “But I wonder if the U.S. dairy farmer is going to be a casualty of those negotiations,” he said.

One export executive, who asked not to be quoted, said he has started to limit his exposure to political news. “For my mental health,” he said.