The total cost of direct damage to the Ukrainian economy since Russia invaded the country three years ago now totals $176 billion, Kansas State University economist Antonina Broyaka said.

Indirect losses now total nearly $589 billion, the Ukraine-born Broyaka said during a KSU webinar update April 16.

“It grows, as Russia continues to send missiles every day,” she said. “No one expected it to last this long, but Ukrainian people are very strong and brave, and not going to give up their land.”

But despite billions of dollars in damage to its agricultural infrastructure and equipment, and the loss of farmland to Russia, Ukraine continues to produce and export farm products.

Outlook

About 11.4 million acres are slated for wheat production in 2025, down 6.7% from 12.2 million acres in 2024. Production had reached about 17.5 million acres in 2021, before the war.

Ukraine remains the top sunflower oil and meal exporter in the world. Russia became the world leader in production due to harvesting occupied Ukrainian regions that specialize in sunflower and world wheat production, Broyaka said.

Sunflower production is estimated to be on about 12.8 million acres, up 6.4% from 12 million acres in 2024. Production had reached about 16.5 million acres in 2021.

Ukraine has exported more than 183 million tons of grains, oil seeds and by-products since the war began, averaging more than 60 million tons per year.

Grain and oilseed exports were about 4 million metric tons in February, down from a high of 6.6 million metric tons in April 2024.

Farmers and traders would rather move through Black Sea ports compared to “more complicated and expensive logistics” at Danube River ports, Broyaka said.

About 80 million metric tons of grains, legumes and oilseeds are expected to be produced in 2025, up from 73.6 million metric tons in 2024, but down from 106.4 million metric tons in 2021.

About 57.6 million metric tons are expected to be exported in 2025, down from 61.6 million metric tons in 2024. Exports peaked at 62.1 million metric tons in 2019.

De-mining

About 43 million acres are affected by the hostilities, Broyaka said. About 8.6 million acres have been cleared through de-mining or non-technical survey. About 14.8 million acres are potentially contaminated agricultural land.

Nearly $40 billion is needed for land clearance, Broyaka said.

The Ukrainian government has implemented a national program to remove land mines in critical areas, and offers 100% compensation for “humanitarian de-mining” for farmers.

“It’s going to be a long, dangerous and expensive project because apparently Ukraine is the most mined country in the world,” she said.

Some farmers attempt to de-mine their land on their own, resulting in casualties, she said.

“We encourage farmers to wait until professionals will come and clean their field,” she said.

Grain storage

At least 12.7 million tons of storage capacities were fully destroyed, and 3.6 million tons were partially damaged, Broyaka said.

Broyaka estimates that about $2.3 billion is needed to restore damaged grain storage.

Many investors, particularly international donors, are not open to investing in building new or re-building, because it’s “obviously an easy target” to damage again, Broyaka said.
Farmers use plastic sleeves as temporary storage, which cannot be re-used the following year.

Some new storage facilities or dry ports were added close to the European Union border or close to ports, she said.

Since the beginning of the war, Ukraine’s elevator capacity increased by 2.2 million tons, she said.

“With reduced production, we don’t need so many storage facilities,” Broyaka said.

At the beginning of the war, Ukrainian farmers had high ending stocks and new crop incoming.

“Now we’ve kind of learned how to manage,” she said. “Obviously after the war is over, we will need to re-build or add some new storage facilities in the places where they are needed and were damaged.”