Yakima River basin irrigators with junior water rights can expect 51% of their normal water allotment, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation forecasts, as Central Washington faces a third-straight summer of drought.

The outlook issued May 5 was worse than the 58% forecast by the bureau at the beginning of April. The region has received below-average rainfall since the start of the water year and has a smaller than normal snowpack left to melt into reservoirs.

The forecast could worsen or improve depending on the weather. The bureau projects the supply could drop to as low as 39% or bump up to 66%.

The federal Climate Prediction Center forecasts mid-May could be cool and wet, but June and July in Central Washington are expected to be drier and warmer than usual.

“A couple more dry months and the numbers could go down,” said Scott Revell, manager of the 72,000-acre Roza Irrigation District based in Sunnyside.

Irrigators are applying the lessons they learned the past two drought years, said Urban Eberhart, manager of the Kittitas Reclamation District based in Ellensburg.

“We’re seeing people being extremely careful,” he said. “It just seems to be a different mindset than the first year of the drought.”

The reclamation bureau manages five reservoirs that store water to irrigate some 464,000 acres. The reservoirs hold 75% as much water as normal for this time of year. The Upper Yakima basin snowpack is only 45% of average. The Naches basin snowpack is 72% of average.

The Roza district wants to supply water until at least Oct. 1 to irrigate hops, grapes and tree fruit, but probably will have to shut down for 10 to 15 days early in the season, Revell said.

The shut down will happen when reservoirs peak and start dropping. Revell said he hoped that would happen in mid-May. “The sooner the better,” he said. The district does not want to shut down in June when growing days lengthen and farmers need more water, he said.

Roza also has spent about $3 million to lease water. Some 6,290 acres in the district were fallow last summer. Revelll said he expects the number to increase by more than 2,000 acres.

“It’s mostly because of the market. Part of it is the drought,” Revell said.The Kittitas Reclamation District, which has a different mix of crops, does not plan to shut down during the season, but probably will have to end irrigating early, Eberhart said.

The district hopes to operate until the first week of September, he said. In a good water year, the district supplies water until mid-October.

Last year, irrigators ended the season with 52% of their normal allotments. It was the lowest percentage since 2015, when the season ended with irrigators getting 47%.