Published 1:17 pm Tuesday, June 3, 2025
Farmers are feeling great about current conditions and their prospects for the future under President Donald Trump, according to the latest edition of the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.
Farmer sentiment climbed in May to reach a score of 158 on the index, 10 points higher than in April.
“That’s the highest barometer reading we’ve gotten since May of 2021 and continues the trend of strong barometer readings ever since the election last fall, and to some extent, maybe dating back to last October,” said James Mintert, Purdue University professor emeritus in the department of agricultural economics, in an online analysis.
Mintert was surprised by the magnitude of the jump.
Survey results in mid-May showed a much more optimistic view of U.S. agricultural export prospects, combined with a less negative opinion of tariff impacts on 2025 farm income.
Michael Langemeier, director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture, said good news regarding negotiations with China likely lifted results.
The survey includes farmers of corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton, as well as producers of beef cattle, hogs and dairy.
The percentage of producers who said they expect U.S. agricultural exports to increase over the next five years skyrocketed to 52%, up from 33% in April.
It’s the highest response to that question since November 2020.
“This was a truly amazing result. I did not expect this,” Langemeier said.
He noted that agriculture faces more challenging export conditions now, but the score was only over 50% one time during the previous administration.
Langemeier and Mintert expressed concerns about losing market share, but said farmers think trade negotiations will bring favorable conditions and open new markets.
“For two months in a row, roughly 70% of the producers have said they expect to see the use of tariffs to strengthen the U.S. ag economy in the long run,” Mintert said.
No ag economics expert would agree but that’s what farmers believe, he said.
Producers views’ on trade have shifted significantly in the past few years.
The May survey repeated a question that was first posed in the barometer in autumn 2020 — farmers and ranchers were asked about whether free trade benefits agriculture and most other American industries.
In fall 2020, 49% of respondents strongly agreed with that statement.
In May, only 28% of producers surveyed strongly agreed.
Barometer surveys don’t target specialty crop producers who tend to hire more non-family labor.
Some are included because they produce major commodities, however.
Still, survey results indicate labor availability could be an emerging concern.
One out of four crop and livestock producers who typically hire non-family members said the U.S. administration’s policy to reduce immigration could increase their difficulty in hiring adequate labor for their farm operation.
About 10% expected a lot of difficulty and 16% anticipated some difficulty in hiring adequate labor.
“That seems high given the fact that quite a few of these farms have very few hired employees,” Langemeier said.
