Published 9:12 am Thursday, June 5, 2025
The risk of large wildfires is above normal through September in much of the West, according to the National Interagency Fire Center.
Prolonged warm, dry spring conditions melted snow and cured grasses and other fine fuels early in many areas, increasing risk particularly at low and middle elevations, according to NIFC’s June 1 National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook.
“This spring definitely has been warmer and drier than normal,” Jim Wallmann, U.S. Forest Service meteorologist at NIFC in Boise, told Capital Press.
In 2024, a heatwave “got everything going in the Northwest and Idaho. California wasn’t that busy, at least at higher elevations,” he said. The state had many low-elevation fires such as in grasses, but snowpack shortened the burn timetable at higher elevations.
“This year, California is going to be in the mix at all elevations because they had a much weaker snowpack than last year,” Wallmann said. More of Nevada could be busy, and activity in the Northwest possibly could extend to eastern Montana.
The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center and NIFC Predictive Services expect above-normal temperatures through September in the West and conditions that are drier than normal across the West’s northern half, according to the NIFC large-fire outlook.
For this month, Fire Center forecasters predict above-normal potential for large fires across portions of the inland Northwest, north Idaho panhandle, southern Great Basin and parts of California and western Nevada. Above-normal potential will expand in July to cover much of California, the Northwest, northern Great Basin and northern Rockies, and persist in these regions in August and into September.
Above-normal potential for large fires is predicted in eastern Washington and north-central Oregon in June, particularly during the month’s second half, according to NIFC. Conditions are expected to worsen through summer and bring above-normal potential to much of the region in August and September.
May precipitation was less than 80% of average in many areas, with some spots seeing less than 25%. Snow melted faster than average.
Herbaceous fuels at middle to low elevations have peaked and begun curing, and “recent fire activity confirms elevated single-day burn potential in rangeland fuels east of the Cascades, especially where curing aligns with wind and slope conditions,” according to the report.
Near- to above-normal potential for large fires is projected through September. Flash drought conditions will make vegetation flammable for longer periods.
Live fuels will inhibit fire spread across middle and upper elevations initially “but may become a carrier across the lower elevations as June progresses,” according to NIFC. “Concerns are likely to increase across the mid and less sheltered upper elevations during July, with flammability likely to peak during August and possibly extend into September … Significant fire growth is likely to be initiated mostly during heat waves and their subsequent breakdowns, and lightning periods are likely to be a little more impactful compared to last year.”
Precipitation remains well below average in central and southern California since the water year started Oct. 1, with most areas receiving less than 70% of average. Southernmost and easternmost areas are driest.
Summer will bring a greater chance of timber-dominated fires compared to last year or 2023, according to NIFC. In smaller vegetation fuel types in coastal areas, larger fires are possible as the marine layer becomes less pronounced.
Large-fire activity is expected to increase to above-normal levels in southern areas, primarily in mid to higher elevations stricken by long-term drought and recent conditions that have been hotter and drier than normal. Drought made the fine-fuel crop smaller at lower elevations in the south.
Concerns shift northward by July and August to northern and western Nevada and southern Idaho, according to NIFC. Fine-fuel carryover from last year is expected to be above normal at lower elevations, with multiple crops of new cheatgrass due to late spring moisture in some areas.
“Meanwhile, despite the healthy winter snowfall, prolonged warm and dry conditions so far this spring and potentially continuing into July will result in above normal potential for the higher elevations of Idaho by the latter half of July or early August,” the report said.
Above-normal potential for large fires will develop over northern Idaho into June and spread eastward through western and north-central Montana in July. Above-normal potential will continue to spread eastward in August, and “long-range weather projections do not signal significant relief in late August or September, so the September outlook will be unchanged from August,” according to the report.
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U.S. Forest Service wildfire meteorologist Jim Wallmann at the National Interagency Fire Center. Courtesy NIFC
