Published 12:13 pm Tuesday, June 10, 2025
A marketing expert who has worked for the blueberry and pistachio industries said U.S. tariffs possibly bring more headaches than benefits for agriculture, but farms and other businesses can protect themselves.
Tariffs bring three main problems, said Dennis Tootelian, founder of the Tootelian Company, a consulting firm based in Sacramento.
There’s their short-term nature, the reciprocal tariffs that result and the “double whammy” of shrinking export markets and increased operating costs, wrote Tootelian, in an analysis of the issue.
While Tootelian’s report focused on California, he said it translates to agriculture in the Pacific Northwest and other regions.
Tootelian said there can be good reasons for tariffs, but he’s not a fan of blanket tariffs. “Blanket tariffs, especially, are very dangerous,” Tootelian said, in an interview.
Because tariffs can be turned on and off very quickly, increases resulting from higher prices on imports are likely temporary.
“Generally, most growers shouldn’t make major commitments to expanding acreage and/or make crop changes unless it truly appears that market opportunities created by tariff policies will be maintained for at least six months to one year, and possibly five to seven years, depending on the commodity,” wrote Tootelian, an emeritus professor of marketing at California State University, Sacramento.
Retaliatory tariffs might not be on similar products — agriculture is easy to target — so grower gains domestically might be mitigated by foreign losses.
For example, in 2018 China increased its tariffs on selected agricultural products by approximately 15% in retaliation to U.S. tariffs on aluminum and steel.
“The value of California’s agricultural exports to China declined by about $339 million from 2017 to 2019,” Tootelian wrote.
Tariffs placed on imports will increase operating costs for growers, including equipment, maintenance and supplies such as feed, chemicals and fuel.
A 10% increase in just some operating costs will increase total operating costs by 4.1% for an average California farm.
President Donald Trump’s administration and foreign governments will likely back down rather than engage in a full-fledged trade war, Tootelian said.
But businesses and industry should reduce vulnerability to higher costs and lower export sales because tariff threats are likely to rise again.
Controlling costs is the first step.
“Lower operating costs help mitigate any lost revenues from reciprocal tariffs and gives growers options for shifting to alternative markets that might require selling at lower price points to avoid a buildup of inventory or straight crop loss,” Tootelian wrote.
He encouraged industry to look for new uses, new users or both within America to expand domestic sales.
Regions also should solidify brand preference, making foreign consumers less sensitive to price increases.
“Foreign buyers who prefer California-grown commodities will probably pay some premium during moderate trade wars,” Tootelian wrote.
The same principle applies to commodities from other states.
Cultivating regional brands in foreign markets will take considerable promotional and marketing efforts, but likely will yield benefits during turbulent and tame times, Tootelian said.
Republican and Democrat leaders have used tariffs as tools, and the first president to do so was George Washington.
Tariffs can protect agriculture from imports produced at lower costs and with less regulation, particularly during harvest.
But in some cases, imports serve as placeholders when domestic products aren’t readily available, ensuring consumption patterns don’t change.
