The Bureau of Reclamation predicted June 17 that irrigation districts will be able to deliver 45% of full water allotments to junior water-right holders in the Yakima River basin. (Don Jenkins/Capital Press)

The Bureau of Reclamation forecasts Yakima River basin irrigators with junior water-rights will get 45% of their normal allotments, an improvement over the outlook less than two weeks ago.

The bureau issued a mid-month forecast June 16 to update irrigators in south-central Washington on how much water they can expect to receive from the bureau’s five reservoirs.

The bureau projected on June 5 that irrigators would receive 43% of their full allotments. The uptick was the first time the outlook has improved since the bureau started making predictions in March.

Roza Irrigation District manager Scott Revell said every percentage point counts. The 72,000-acre district will have more water to deliver on the hottest days, he said.

“It’s ultra crucial,” Revell said. “Two percentage points when you’re in the low to mid-40s, that’s a big deal.”

The expected water supply still remains among the lowest on record, and it could get worse, depending on the weather, according to the bureau.

The water supply could drop to as low as 33%, below the record 37% set in 1994 and 2001, the bureau projects. The bureau will issue another update in early July.

Yakima County grape grower Jim Willard said the increase in the water supply forecast won’t change his irrigation plans for the month. “We’re on the same track as last week,” he said. “You never know what the next report is going to look like.”

Willard said he left 20 acres fallow in anticipation of the drought. Moderate temperatures and low winds have helped stretch the water supply, he said. “The weather has really been helping.”

Although the area has received no rain this month, moderate temperatures helped with the outlook. Also, more time has passed with senior water-right holders leaving water in the system.

The bureau supplies water to irrigate 464,00 acres. The area includes the state’s signature crops such as apples, cherries, hops and grapes. This is the third straight summer water supplies have been cut back for junior water-right holders.

The string of droughts has left the reservoirs with less water than usual. The five reservoirs hold 73% as much water as usual for this time of year, according to the bureau.

The reservoirs, fed by rain and melting snow, peaked on June 11 and are declining. At the end of the irrigation season, the reservoirs will be low and will need a wet winter to refill for next year.

In the short term, the region needs rain and continued moderate temperatures. If the weather is favorable, the water supply could still rise to 55% of normal, according to the bureau.

Although this year’s drought could rival the record-low water shortage of 1994, the Roza district is better positioned to stretch out supplies because of investments in water conservation, Revell said.

The district shut down its canal for 23 days and stopped delivering water on Sept. 8 in 1994. This year, the district shut down for 10 days in May and plans to deliver water until Sept. 28, he said.