EU trading quotas could push more Ukrainian farm commodities onto the world market. (Courtesy European Union)

New trading quotas between Ukraine and the European Union mean Ukrainian farmers could seek to sell their crops elsewhere on the global market, a Ukrainian economist says.

“Ukraine will need to diversify its agricultural exports, since export capacity is much higher than Europe is going to buy from Ukraine,” Antonina Broyaka, agricultural economics assistant professor at Kansas State University, said during a June 24 webinar about the trade relationship between Ukraine and the EU. “Ukraine will search for alternative markets, which means there will be high competition on the other markets.”

The EU was always the main market for Ukrainian animal and crop products, Broyaka said. Its value for Ukraine was nearly $12.9 billion in 2024, double that of 2021, prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Quotas under the new Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area apply to more than 30 groups of Ukrainian goods. Ukraine’s export capacity for many products exceeds current limits, particularly maize, honey, eggs, sugar and other products.

For example, the EU in 2024 imported more than 11 million metric tons of maize, well over the new 650,000 metric tonnes total limit in the new free trade area.

A duty is added to exports exceeding quota limits, Broyaka said. The duty rate for sugar is about 419 euros per ton, while the market price is 520 euros per ton, she said.

It could also mean less planted acres for certain crops with small quotas, she said.

Ukraine is one of the top three exporters of agricultural products into the EU, representing about 7.6% of total imports, behind Brazil and the United Kingdom, at 10.1% and 9% respectively. The U.S. is fourth, representing 7%.

Agri-food represented about 54% of total imports from Ukraine to the EU in 2024. Ag-related exports from the EU to Ukraine represented about 8.5% of total exports, primarily fertilizer and agricultural machinery, not including tractors.

All grain and oilseed exports are significantly less in June 2025 compared to June 2024 because of the quotas’ impact, Broyaka said.

“Ukraine is trying to find other markets all the time,” she said. “This is more of a geopolitical issue rather than only economical.”

Russia

If Ukrainian air defenses are able to protect Black Sea ports in the ongoing war with Russia, Ukraine will continue to send supplies to other destinations, Broyaka said.

“But Europe is much closer, its logistics are more simple and also cheaper,” she said. “There is a question of price and insurance.”

If Russia is able to limit movement of ships, “who knows?” she said.

“It is very disappointing that Europe restricts agricultural trade with Ukraine, which is suffering from the Russian invasion, while allowing imports of agricultural products from Russia,” Broyaka said.

Russian imports are fewer than Ukrainian imports, and declining, but even the $1.2 billion in export revenue for Russia would be a big help for Ukraine “rather than supporting aggressor countries,” she said. “These imports from Russia can be easily replaced by Ukraine.”

Crop outlook

The amount of Ukraine’s spring grains and oilseeds planted in 2025 are about 98% of total expectations, and down about 494,000 acres from the previous year, a 2.5% decrease.

“Ukraine now is expecting limits in production due to exhausted soil and exhausted farmers and their ability and finance,” Broyaka said.

The winter was not favorable for crops, as the first year without snow. Yields will be lower due to the lack of precipitation.

Exports will be lower due to lower production and the new quotas, Broyaka said. Ending stocks will be higher than previous years.

Watch Broyaka’s full presentation here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCDGhNixOxM