Last fall, shelves in the rice section of supermarkets were almost bare. Any available rice’s prices had shot up.

Venues like bars and coffee shops showcased rice at their front windows at a premium.

Rice is now back on store shelves, but prices have skyrocketed.

This reporter buys brown rice for home. Last summer, I was still paying the usual 1500 yen (about $10) for five kilos of the grain at a local rice store.

Last month, the store finally started selling brown rice again after a few months without. The price: 3700 yen (about $25), an almost 150% hike from last summer.

Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries official Tatsuya Higuchi told the Capital Press that in the off-season of August last year, the announcement of the Nankai Trough Earthquake Emergency Information and subsequent typhoons caused purchases at supermarkets to jump to 1.5 times that of the previous year.

Wholesalers could not keep up with the supply to supermarkets, causing shortages in stores. News of such shortages led to further demand from consumers to buy more, Higuchi said.

Higuchi said MAFF believes the price increase for rice harvested in 2024 is due to the fact that production costs have increased by 40% for fertilizer and 30% for fuel compared to 2020, as well as competition for collection.

The production volume of rice for the 2024 crop is 6.79 million tons, 180,000 tons more than the previous year, Higuchi said.

Higuchi said an unprecedented competition to collect rice has occurred however, and the amount of rice collected by collection companies, which are mainly responsible for distribution to supermarkets, etc., has decreased by 210,000 tons compared to the previous year as of the end of December 2024 (230,000 tons as of the end of January, the latest figure).

“This has caused a blockage in the entire distribution system and as a result, prices have risen,” Higuchi said.

Another reason, given by media, is an influx of tourists as COVID-19 restrictions eased and a weaker yen made Japan a more attractive destination.

Those tourists have apparently been eating a lot of rice.

All this would sound good for exporters of rice to Japan, including growers of the Calrose brand in California.

In fact, The Japan Times daily newspaper reported last September consumers are turning to the cheaper California rice, with retailers reporting a sharp rise in sales.

A medium-grain variety, Calrose is cheaper than the Japanese short-grain cultivar, with a relatively similar taste to Japanese rice compared with Thai rice, The Japan Times reported.

The Japan Times reported Nippon Brice, a nationwide seller of rice and grains that has been selling Calrose rice for a decade, said demand for the California variety has been especially robust.

“Sales of Calrose have grown tenfold from last year,” said a spokesperson for Nippon Brice, The Japan Times reported.

Tokyo store Rice Meister Kojimachi, which primarily supplies retailers and restaurants, also started selling Calrose in July when its stock of Japanese rice appeared to be falling short, The Japan Times reported.

“There is a wide range of customers who want Calrose because of how cheap it is,” Rice Meister Kojimachi head Shuzo Fukushi told The Japan Times.

Fukushi told The Japan Times bags of Calrose and Japanese rice blended together are selling well because of the price hike and shortage of Japanese rice.

At his store, Calrose rice is priced at ¥360 per kilo, half the price of the Japanese rice Fukushi sells, The Japan Times reported.

USA Rice Federation Japan director Yumi Kojima told the Capital Press her office has for many years been introducing Calrose’s features (light texture, compatibility with oils and dressings, delicious even when served cold, etc.) and its versatility in menus.

“Calrose’s stable quality and high cooking suitability have attracted the interest of many chefs and consumers, as it expands the range of rice dishes,” Kojima said.

Kojima said her office plans to exhibit at exhibitions and conduct tie-up promotions with retail and restaurant companies.

“We also plan to hold various events such as cooking classes that give consumers the opportunity to actually cook and eat Calrose,” she said.

Kojima has her work cut out for her.

Every year, Japan is expected to fulfill its WTO commitment of importing duty-free 767,000 metric tons (brown rice basis) or 682,000 metric tons (milled rice basis) of rice.

MAFF purchases all the rice, selling 100,000 tons of mostly table rice under a simultaneous buy-sell system.

The remaining “ordinary minimum access” rice goes into government reserves and is turned into rice flour used by food processors mainly in the confectionery sector, consumed by feed millers, or re-exported as food aid.

Asked whether the Japanese government would be willing to let in more foreign rice to prevent shortages, MAFF’s Higuchi told the Capital Press anybody can import rice outside the state trade… at a 341 yen (about $2.35) per kilo tariff.

Far from considering changing the system, MAFF is currently selling 210,000 tons of rice out of its 1-million ton stockpile to collection companies.

Sales volume will be further expanded if necessary. “This will hopefully clear up the congestion in distribution and, as a result, stabilize the rising prices,” Higuchi said.

Also, media reported the advisory panel Council of Food, Agriculture and Rural Area Policies submitted a five-year basic plan to ag minister Taku Eto saying Japan should boost rice exports, including packaged rice and rice flour, to 353,000 tons in 2030, up eightfold from last year.

Increasing rice production for exports would help expand supply flexibility, as rice intended for foreign markets could be diverted for domestic consumption in case of a shortage, the basic plan says, media reported.