Northwest facing power crunch in ‘all scenarios’

Published 1:35 pm Monday, January 26, 2026

Power supply uncertain as region goes with the wind

The Pacific Northwest will be vulnerable to energy shortages as the region turns to windmills, solar panels and batteries to power data centers, heat homes and fuel vehicles, according to the Western Electricity Coordinating Council.

So-called “loss of load events,” in which the demand for electricity exceeds the supply, could start as soon as 2028 and last as long as five days by 2035, according to an assessment released Jan. 22.

The number and length of power crunches will depend on load growth and the addition of new energy sources. The council, however, foresees energy shortages in the Northwest under all scenarios.

“I think that’s an important message,” Northwest Public Power Association executive director Kurt Miller said. “I’d say something has to give — either the clean-energy laws or the grid’s reliability.”

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission charges the coordinating council with ensuring an adequate supply of electricity in the Western Interconnection.

The interconnection covers 14 states, two Canadian provinces and Northern Baja California. Some 90% of the planned new energy sources in the coming decade are weather-dependent, making the future energy supply uncertain, according to the council.

The council’s Northwest subregion encompasses Oregon, Washington, Montana, Northern California and the Idaho Panhandle. The Northwest stands out by far as the subregion most likely to have power outages in the next decade.

The council categorizes 80% of planned energy projects in the Northwest as “speculative.” Even if every one is built on time, the Northwest will not have enough electricity for 445 hours over the next 10 years, according to the assessment.

By comparison, the Basin subregion — Utah, southern Idaho and western Wyoming — ranks as the second most vulnerable region. But it’s projected to have an energy shortage for only 18 hours over 10 years.

“The Northwest is unique in that it experiences loss of load in the summer and winter in all scenarios,” the assessment states.

Lengthy power crunches predicted

Here are other key points in the assessment:

—  If only two-thirds of the planned power projects are built, the Northwest will be short of electricity for 1,294 hours over the coming 10 years. That’s 54 days.

— By 2030, the region could have a power shortage lasting 48 hours in January, assuming a large growth in the demand for electricity. “Given the cold weather during January and the significant electrification of heating in the Northwest, this is a noteworthy risk,” the assessment states.

— By 2035, the council projects the maximum duration for a power shortage could be 128 hours, or five days and eight hours.

— Assuming high load growth, the demand for electricity will exceed the supply 149 times in 2035. The loss-of-load events will total 714 hours.

— The Northwest currently gets 16% of its electricity from windmills. The council projects the percentage by 2035 will be 27%. Wind is the most variable of energy sources, according to the council.

— California, British Columbia and Alberta send power to the Northwest. But transmission lines limit the supply. Besides more power plants, more transmission lines would help prevent energy shortages.

— The sun, even when shining, makes less electricity in the winter. Windmills are even more variable. The demand for heat and the timing of solar and wind power are the main reasons for energy shortages in the winter, according to the assessment.