USDA is projecting lower winter wheat production and yields this year compared to 2020’s bumper crops across the Pacific Northwest.

The region’s wheat commission executives say that’s to be expected, given the lack of rain this spring.

“Certainly with less moisture so far this year, we would expect yields to be down in Washington,” said Glen Squires, CEO of the Washington Grain Commission. “(We’re) hoping that some timely rains will occur this month and into June to help the crop along.”

Idaho farmers are in much the same position.

“Idaho had record yields last year for winter wheat and we did not expect to match those yields for a second year, so it is not surprising that the production estimates are lower,” said Casey Chumrau, executive director of the Idaho Wheat Commission. “Considering the dry conditions around the state, we would be happy with only a 3 percent decrease as predicted in this report.”

Idaho farmers planted slightly more winter and spring wheat acreage, Chumrau said.

“If prices remain high, we may see an increase in planted acres in the fall. Wheat becomes a lot more attractive at $8 (per bushel),” she said. “But input costs are also going up so growers will need to lock in those costs and pencil it out.”

Drought in much of Oregon will have a “significant” impact on expected average yields.

“Without changes in weather, I would expect to see it down even further,” Oregon Wheat CEO Amanda Hoey said.

Washington acreage may be slightly down from last year, but 2020 was the highest acreage since 2006, Squires said. The Northwest’s overall wheat acreage is unchanged from last year, he said.

The USDA projects:

• Washington farmers will harvest 1.69 million acres, down 3.4% from 2020. Production will be 108 million bushels, down 19% from 2020.

• Oregon farmers are projected to harvest 705,000 acres of winter wheat, down 2.8% from 2020. Production is pegged at 39.5 million bushels, down 15% from 2020.

• Idaho farmers are expected to harvest 680,000 acres, up 3% from 2020. Production is expected to be 64.6 million bushels, down 3% from 2020.

Yields are also expected to be down. Washington’s average yield is expected to be 64 bushels per acre, down from 72 bushels per acre in 2020.

Oregon’s average yield of 56 bushels per acre would be down from 64 bushels in 2020.

Idaho’s yield is expected to average 95 bushels per acre, down from 101 bushels per acre last year.

Nationwide, production is expected to be 1.28 billion bushels, up 10% from 1.17 billion bushels in 2020.

The yield was forecast at 52.1 bushels per acre, up 1.2 bushels from last year. Growers planted an estimated 33.1 million acres in the fall of 2020.

Figures are based on May 1 conditions, according to USDA.