When Randy Fortenbery talks, wheat farmers listen closely.

In his presentations, he hopes to explain the prices they receive, how to handle potential price and production risks and point out opportunities on the world market.

“What’s going on with both our competitors and potential customers?” he said.

Fortenbery, the small grains economist at Washington State University, will present his annual economic forecast at the Spokane Ag Show.

The big things to watch in the wheat market: How much wheat is exported? Where is it going? How much acreage was planted? How do things look for spring-planted wheat yields?

Fortenbery also watches the pace of U.S. wheat exports each week. If USDA has to revise its estimates downward, it may ultimately be reflected in lower prices.

He also watches where exports go. With Vietnam eliminating its tariffs for U.S. wheat, Fortenbery hopes to see more volume headed to that market.

Fortenbery is working on several studies, including one about whether the crop insurance program provides different incentives to farmers around the nation.

“Does it encourage wheat production in one area and not in another area?” he asked. “For example, the crop insurance program for producers (in the Pacific Northwest) looks very different than the crop insurance program for a hard red winter wheat producer in Kansas or a soft red winter wheat producer, let’s say in Illinois.”

Fortenbery is also asking whether the programs are designed to provide incentives to move wheat production to a different location, or make alternative crops more attractive in certain areas compared to wheat.

He’s also weighing whether the USDA Risk Management Agency’s method of forecasting the risk of price volatility for crop insurance premiums can be improved.

Another study, which he is doing with the University of Washington’s climate impacts group, will examine the risk due to climate change in several economic sectors, including agriculture.

Many farmers were forced to rely on crop insurance in 2021 due to drought.

“They had attractive prices, especially in the inland and Pacific Northwest, but pretty disappointing yield numbers,” Fortenbery said.