The Washington Department of Ecology has re-estimated the state’s 1990 greenhouse gas emissions, improving the odds the state met its first carbon-reduction targets.

Emissions totaled 93.5 million tons in 1990, according to a new greenhouse gas inventory by Ecology. Two years ago, Ecology estimated 1990 emissions were 90.5 million tons.

The new figure moves the goal posts in favor of the state declaring victory in cutting greenhouse gases. State law requires 2020 emissions, yet to be calculated, to equal 1990 levels.

Ecology adjusts estimates as the Environmental Protection Agency and others update guidelines for calculating greenhouse gases, Ecology spokeswoman Susan Woodward said.

“Improvements in methodology may continue to impact our data, resulting in more changes to numbers in future reports,” she said in an email.

Following international standards, Washington lawmakers 15 years ago adopted 1990 as the baseline for measuring progress in cutting carbon emissions.

The original baseline was 88.4 million tons. It’s been revised upward three times by Ecology.

Back in 2008, lawmakers set the state’s first carbon-reduction goal: 2020 emissions at 1990 levels. It’s unknown whether the goal was met. Emission estimates take several years to compile.

Ecology reported Dec. 28 that 2019 emissions were 102.1 million tons, a 6.9% increase over 2018. It was the first time since before the Great Recession carbon output has topped 100 million tons.

Ecology attributed the increase to a poor water year. Dams generated less carbon-free electricity. Coal and natural gas power plants filled the gap.

Ecology climate policy manager Joel Creswell, according to a press release, detected a “silver lining.”

Emissions, he noted, are still below the all-time peak of 111.5 million tons. The mark was set in 1999 just before the aluminum industry collapsed.

Also, according to Creswell, the upturn in emissions is likely to be short-lived. Ecology already reports that carbon emissions from electricity consumption in 2020 dropped by 32%.

Dams generated more electricity than the year before and COVID shutdowns reduced the demand for energy.

Across the U.S., energy-related carbon emissions in 2020 dropped to their lowest levels since 1983, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The downward trend was reversed in 2021. As COVID lockdowns eased, energy-related carbon emissions rose by the largest one-year increase on record, according to the EIA. 

Carbon emissions attributed to Washington agriculture were 6.2 million tons in 2019, according to Ecology. Farm emissions — livestock, manure and soil management — in 1990, the baseline year, were 6.9 million tons.