Wildfires have already burned nearly four times as many acres this year compared to the same period in 2023, according to the National Interagency Fire Center.

More than 2.8 million acres have burned so far in 2024, and 715,000 acres had burned as of July last year.

The wildfire risk continues to jump in much of the West on high heat coupled with an abundance of fire-ready grasses and other fine fuels plumped during a wet spring.

“With what we are experiencing right now with record heat in the West, we do expect fire activity to increase quite a bit in July and to last through much of September,” Jim Wallmann, a U.S. Forest Service fire meteorologist based at the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise, said.

“We are definitely looking at a busier season than last year already,” he said. “However, if this extreme heat were to last more than just the next week, and into August, the fire season could be more active. The longer the heat lasts, the more active this fire season has the potential to become.

Not all fires show in the statistics, as NIFC and the InciWeb Incident Management System generally track those that are 100 acres in timber, 300 in grass, involve an incident management team or are managed as a multi-fire complex, said Carrie Bilbao, a U.S. Bureau of Land Management public affairs specialist at the fire center.

Much of the West has above-normal risk of large fires, according to NIFC’s National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for July through October.

Above-normal temperatures are likely across much of the U.S. this month and continuing into October, according to the report. Below-normal precipitation is expected for much of the northern half of the West and in much of the Rockies.

A transition from weather pattern El Nino to La Nina — which typically moves storms and cold north — is expected over the summer and fall. A lag of one to two months is likely between La Nina’s arrival and when its impacts appear, Wallmann said.

Drought or abnormally dry conditions persist in much of Washington, northern Idaho and western Montana, according to the report.

More and larger areas are expected to experience above normal significant fire potential starting in July.

Above-normal potential for large fires is forecast for much of the northern Great Basin, and into central and southeast Oregon and far northeast California, through September. Unusually high loading of fine fuels is the main driver, according to the report. Much of western Washington, and central and southeast Oregon, also have above-normal risk.

Lingering drought is a factor in western Washington and south-central Oregon.

In north-central and southeast Oregon, multi-season, heavy grass fuel loading across the rangelands is the key contributor. A large grass crop, helped by the unusually wet winter and spring, is a factor in elevated risk of large fires in parts of southern California.

Low-elevation fine fuels are cured in most lower elevations of the northern Great Basin after a hot, dry June in much of the area’s western two-thirds, according to NIFC. Due to winter and spring rain and snow, fine-fuel growth is above normal in areas including northern and western Nevada, and southern Idaho. Grass carried over from last year contributes to elevated risk in northern areas this month and possibly into September.

Active large fires

California (Source: NIFC)

Basin: 14,015 acres, 46% contained, 28 miles northeast of Sanger.

French: 908 acres, 20% contained, one mile northwest of Mariposa.

Grande: 323 acres, 80% contained, five miles west of Patterson.

Lightning: 10,616 acres, 98% contained, three miles northeast of Navelencia.

McCain 4: 1,595 acres, 95% contained, one mile northeast of Boulevard.

Sheering: 404 acres, no containment, 15 miles northeast of Tuolumne.

Shelly: 446 acres, no containment, eight miles west of Etna.

Thompson: 3,789 acres, 55% contained, two miles northeast of Oroville.

California additional large fires: (Source California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection / Cal Fire)

Lake, Santa Barbara County: 20,320 acres, 8% contained.

North, Modoc County: 4,380 acres, no containment.

Lucerne, San Bernardino County: 419 acres, 90% contained.

Idaho

Billy Creek: (Sources NIFC and Idaho Department of Lands), 3,169 acres, 10% contained, off Snake River near Washington border.

Oregon: (Source Oregon Department of Forestry)

Salt Creek: estimated between 800 and 1,000 acres, Jackson County. Containment information not listed.

Washington: (Source NIFC)

1980 Slide Ranch: 3,166 acres, 95% contained, four miles south of White Swan

Pioneer: 5,464 acres, 14% contained.

Thorp Road: 2,100 acres, 50% contained, five miles southeast of Yakima.