This year will be “a little more challenging” for wheat prices than the past few years, says grain exporter Brian Liedl, an industry representative on the Washington Grain Commission.

“The world is pretty comfortable with the current supply-and-demand picture,” which is reflected in lower wheat prices, he said.

The market’s more accepting of shrinking global wheat stocks year over year and geopolitical risks, Liedl said.

“For growers, generally, it’s going to be a year for tightening the belt, minding all the Ps and Qs, making sure the business is running as efficiently as possible, but also staying nimble and being ready for opportunities,” he said.

As prices stay low, demand will creep up and wheat will work its way into feed rations and new or returning markets, he said.

‘A complicated crop’

“The one thing I’ve learned for sure is nobody knows where the market’s going to move next,” said Liedl, director of merchandising for United Grain.

That’s what he finds exciting about grain marketing: Solving a new problem each day.

“Trying to find ways to get wheat to move from where it’s grown to where it’s consolidated to where it ships to where it’s ending up, whether that’s domestic or overseas,” he said. “It’s one big puzzle to put together.”

Liedl has been with United Grain more than 13 years.

Trading any crop has its ups and downs, but corn and soybeans tend to be more straightforward, he said.

“Wheat’s a complicated crop, there’s lots of variables,” he said. “Whenever there were issues with the crop or different grains or varieties, it was always like putting a puzzle together. That made it very appealing.”

As changes occur, Liedl tries to stay two or three steps ahead.

Soft white wheat primarily grown in the Pacific Northwest is the one U.S. wheat class primarily grown for export.

“The market is very much a balance of what’s going on all around the world,” he said. “You really have to have a higher-level view of what production is like in the Black Sea, Australia or South America. There’s more complication, there’s more moving pieces. … Every three or four months, somebody’s harvesting another crop of wheat. The puzzle’s constantly changing and you have to shift and fit it into the next variable as it comes down the road.”

‘Understand your economics’

Liedl spends a lot of time speaking with farmers about the market. His go-to advice: “Understand your own economics first.”

Farmers should know their cost of production to determine the price they need to sell at to be profitable, pay their bills and re-invest in the business.

Liedl, other exporters and local co-ops are available to help farmers figure out the best plan for their operations, he said.

“I’m sometimes surprised that growers don’t always do all the homework necessary to understand the economics it takes for them to break even,” he said. “This happens in good or bad markets — there’s markets that rally and get super-high, and growers still don’t know if this is a good price or not.”

Liedl’s deep understanding of global wheat markets makes him a good spokesman for the U.S. industry, said Mike Spier, vice president of overseas operations for U.S. Wheat Associates.

“Whatever the buyers need, and sometimes they have very challenging expectations, Brian is always, ‘What is it? What do you need? Let us work on it, let us try to meet your expectations,’” Spier said. “He’s always willing to try to work with them to meet their quality and price expectations, which can be difficult, (with) how competitive the markets are around the world.”

Stewarding growers’ money

Liedl jumped at the opportunity to join the commission in 2021. He focuses on the business side of discussions.

“We are stewards of this money that growers have made — is this the best use of the grower’s money?” he said.

Liedl brings a different viewpoint of the market as an an exporter, said Casey Chumrau, grain commission CEO.

“He is incredibly intelligent and well-informed, so he provides a lot of information and context that allows us to have accurate conversations,” she said. “He is very skilled at asking questions and bringing out a different side of the conversation to make sure we are recognizing any blind spots, and ensuring we’re taking everything into consideration before making a decision.”

“Brian’s knowledge, skill and abilities are really top shelf,” said commission board member Mike Carstensen, a farmer in Lincoln County. “He has international business experience and he’s got his hands on the pulse of the market. He thinks outside the box on most issues.”

Being on the board has exceeded Liedl’s expectations.

“Just the way that growers on the board really care about the state of the industry,” he said. “People really set aside their self-interests and put the good of the state and the wheat industry ahead of their own good. … It really causes me to elevate my own understanding of the wheat industry even further.”

Title:  Director of merchandising, United Grain; industry representative, Washington Grain Commission.

Age: 40.

Hometown: Minneapolis, Minn.

Current location: Vancouver, Wash.

Education: Political science and economics degree, St. John’s University in Minnesota.

Family: Wife Kristen; daughter Victoria, 9.

Hobbies: Spending time with family, travel.

Websites: 

https://unitedgrain.com/

https://wagrains.org/