Domestic nut markets may be turning a corner, according to the USDA.

After steep drops for nearly a decade, nut prices are expected to increase through 2024 to 2025.

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Increases in exports, slowdowns in acreage planted and the September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve should put upward pressure on nut prices.

Walnut prices also are expected to climb due to lower production.

The USDA released its Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook Sept. 26.

Prices rise in 2023

Between 2014 and 2022, nominal prices for almonds fell 65%, walnuts plummeted 82% and hazelnuts dropped 64%. The decreases were due to increasing domestic production, a heavy reliance on exports and a strong dollar.

From 2022 to 2023, however, prices for almonds rose 17%, walnuts increased 40% and hazelnuts edged up 4%.

Estimates of average prices this season will be published in May.

According to industry data, hazelnut prices will be at least 75-90 cents per pound for 2024, up more than 60% from the previous year’s minimum price.

Record hazelnut harvest

Oregon’s hazelnut acreage and production increased rapidly over the past decade, even more so than almonds and walnuts.

In 2023, hazelnut production jumped 22% to a record 94,200 pounds. That was driven by a 12% increase in bearing acreage and a 9% rise in yields.

Despite the bigger crop, prices for growers improved, going from $1,300 per ton in 2022 to $1,350 per ton in 2023. Still, that was a far cry from 2021, when the price per ton was $2,160.

Decreases in global shipments of shelled hazelnuts bolstered demand for U.S. exports and contributed to recent price increases.

From the marketing years 2020-21 to 2023-24, U.S. exports of shelled domestic hazelnut products quadrupled to 16,200 tons. In-shell hazelnut shipments declined 35% in the same time period, but the U.S. still accounts for more than half of global exports in that category.

Walnut production details

Extreme heat and dry conditions in California slowed tree nut maturation, reducing yields and nut quality.

A mild winter also hampered walnuts.

California’s walnut crop is expected to drop 19% to 670,000 tons following a record harvest in 2023.

On average, 44.4 pounds of walnuts are forecast per tree in 2024. That’s the lowest figure since 2000, when California also experienced extreme heat and 43.8 pounds were produced per tree.

The number of trees per acre has increased greatly over time which partially offset the effects of drought, extreme heat and insect infestations.

In 2000, walnut yields were 1.2 tons per acre. This season, they’re expected to hit 1.81 tons per acre, the lowest mark since 2019.

Another factor in lower production is acreage losses.

Walnut bearing acreage is believed to have dropped 4 percent in 2024, going from 385,000 acres to 370,000 acres.

It would be the first time walnut acreage has dropped in two consecutive years since 1951.

The price of shelled walnut exports rose 8% from March to July, hitting $1.99 per pound. That may be related to tightening domestic inventories.

Almond info

While almond acreage didn’t change much from 2023 to 2024, it has steadily increased over time.

The 2024 crop is projected to be the third largest on record at 2.8 billion pounds.

Shelled almond export prices rose throughout the year, likely due to dwindling inventories and increases in world demand.

Almond exports during the 2023-24 marketing year, which ended in July, were the second highest ever recorded at 1.99 billion pounds.