U.S. fresh pear exports are expected to drop to their lowest level since 1988-89 due to the smallest pear crop in nearly 60 years.

The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service forecast exports of the fruit at 85,000 metric tons, a drop of 23% from the previous season.

That’s nearly half the volume from a decade ago and roughly the same as pear imports coming into the country.

Trees look good and if winter and spring weather cooperates a bounceback year could be in store for 2025-26, said Jeff Correa, international marketing director for Pear Bureau Northwest.

“That will give us the fruit to export more and find new opportunities,” he added.

Shipping destinations

Typically, 90% of U.S. pear exports are destined for Canada and Mexico as pears are delicate and difficult to transport long distances.

The U.S. is the top exporter in both markets, with about 90% market share in Mexico and 50% in Canada.

Correa said U.S. pears will be on shelves at near normal levels in those countries, and Mexico continues to import pears despite high prices, which bodes well for the future.

He was more worried about Asia, the Middle East and South America and whether opportunities will be smaller there in the future.

“We’re going on nearly five years since the pandemic where we’ve had low export volumes in the offshore markets,” Correa said.

“What does our longterm outlook look like once we have more of a normal crop where we need to export more?” he added.

World market

While world pear production is forecast up nearly 400,000 tons to 25.9 million, other countries aren’t projected to increase shipments to the U.S.

American pear imports have generally stayed steady despite swings in domestic production.

China has an increased supply but doesn’t grow Bosc, Green Anjou and other varieties that saw drops in the U.S. this season.

The European Union’s crop increased 60,000 tons to 1.9 million, production remains below average, with low volumes of Conference pears that are an important segment of the export market.

Consumption decline

Last year, nearly 30% of domestic supplies were allocated to processing.

Due to high fresh market prices and significant canned pear inventory, more pears will be sold on the fresh market this year and imports will not be increased to supply processing.

With limited growth in imports, domestic pear consumption is forecast at 465,000 tons, the lowest level in at least 4 decades, accelerating the long-term trend of falling pear consumption including processing volumes.

Small harvest

America’s pear crop is forecast at 470,000 metric tons, the smallest since 1967-68 and a drop of more than 20%.

The U.S. is expected to be the world’s sixth-largest pear producer this season after being ranked fourth the previous year and third for most of the preceding decade.

Washington, normally the top pear-producing state, is anticipated to drop more than 30% and have a smaller harvest than Oregon.

A freeze in January damaged pear trees and cold weather continued during the spring blossom, which combined with a trend of falling acreage.

Oregon production is forecast down 15% and California down 17%, also due to damaging weather.

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