North American potato production in 2025 is expected to be similar to 2024, with about a 3% increase in the U.S. and a 1% decline in Canada. Production in Idaho is expected to be up nearly 5%.

“I expect acres to be about the same in both U.S. and Canada in 2025 compared to 2024, and prices are likely to be in a similar range, said Pat Hatzenbuehler, University of Idaho extension crop economist.

The average potato price last year was $9.63 a hundredweight in Idaho, $11.60 cwt. in Oregon and $11.20 in Washington, according to USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service.

About 70% of U.S. potatoes go to processing, including frozen, chip and dehydrated products. About 25% are sold fresh and 5% are grown for seed.

Processing demand

In terms of demand for processing, it’s a mixed story and a shifting of where potatoes are going and who’s buying them, he said during the university’s Ag Outlook seminar.

One big dampener was Lamb Weston closing a big plant in Connell, Wash., on Sept. 30. The company is also curtailing production lines in other processing plants, and its stock price is down almost 23% year to date.

But Lamb Weston is expanding its plant in American Falls, Idaho, and Mart Group opened a frozen potato plant in Rupert, Idaho, a few months ago.

Export demand

In terms of export demand, french fries were up 5.8% year over year for the 2023/2024 marketing year. Exports of chips and fresh potatoes were basically flat.

The major importing countries for frozen products are Japan and Mexico, and the major importing countries for fresh are Canada and Mexico.

With regard to demand based on economic and population growth, he’s expecting steady U.S demand and increased exports.

But there are factors to keep an eye on.

One is Canadian imports, which depend on production conditions there. Another is the strengthening of the U.S. dollar against most currencies, including the Mexican peso. Potential tariffs and responses from other countries, especially Mexico, could also have a big impact, as well as phytosanitary measures banning fresh potatoes to Mexico.

Price pattern

Planting intentions are another thing to watch because acreage is a big determining factor for prices.

“Some of those things could definitely cause the price pattern to change,” he said.

For now, supply and demand are much more in balance in the 2024/2025 marketing year compared with the previous two marketing years, he said.

Potato production 2024 and 2025*

(million hundredweight)

Location 2024 2025*

U.S. — 418 432*

Canada — 127 125*

Idaho — 135 145*

*forecast