USApple’s harvest estimate for this season has been recalibrated to approximately 280 million bushels, an unofficial figure that’s greater than expected, but down about 3% from the record crop of 2023-24.

The organization’s August production estimate was 259.5 million bushels.

While product movement is off to a strong start, about 41% of apples sold this season have been from the previous crop, said Chris Gerlach, USApple vice president of insights and analytics.

He added that advanced cold storage techniques have resulted in some apples being sold in supermarkets 18 months after being picked.

“We’re getting a lot better at keeping apples fresh,” Gerlach said, during a harvest wrap-up webinar Dec. 19.

Still, Gerlach didn’t think the national industry was holding onto too many apples.

Apple holdings

Fresh market holdings were at 121.5 million bushels as of Dec. 1, while processed market holdings were 46.4 million bushels.

Cosmic Crisp had an estimated 15 million bushels in storage, up 66% from December 2023.

“Our Cosmic Crisp expectation is that we’re not into full production and we still have room to grow,” Gerlach said.

Gala holdings also were up, rising 4% year-over-year to 26 million bushels, Red Delicious holdings were down 8% and Honeycrisp holdings were down 32% to 18 million bushels.

Exports, trade war?

Gerlach said it was critical for export markets to stay open, even for those producers who aren’t exporters.

“Every apple that goes offshore is an apple you’re not competing with domestically,” Gerlach said.

He added that he wasn’t sure if President-elect Donald Trump was posturing with threats of a trade war and 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada.

American apple exports total about 47 million bushels worth $1.1 billion, and more than 50% of shipments go to Mexico and Canada.

“The impact of these types of decisions are very real,” Gerlach said.

It took the apple industry two decades to build India from almost nothing into a $174 million market. Five years later, thanks to retaliatory tariffs, that tanked to $1.37 million.

“Lost markets don’t wait for you to return. They move on in your absence,” he said, adding that Turkey and Iran have taken U.S. market share in India.

Selling at lower prices to recover isn’t a solution, due to high production costs for U.S. growers.

“Reclaiming markets is difficult and not always profitable. … If we’re losing money on every bushel we send, I don’t know how we move forward,” Gerlach said.

Capacity, labor costs up

Though bearing acreage is down over the last 20 years, it’s actually increased 10% over the last five years.

And growers are planting — and replanting — with high density orchards and targeting the fresh market.

“Our yields are getting much, much better,” Gerlach said.

Apple consumption per capita is declining in the U.S., but Gerlach hoped to see gains in the future.

While consumer and grower prices for apples are rising, so is production prices, driven by labor costs.

In 2013, labor took up 37% of apple growers’ returns, Gerlach said, citing a recent Northwest Horticultural Council study.

In 2023, that rose to 99%, leaving little money to pay other bills.

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