Mild weather that reduced demand, plentiful inventory and slow export markets challenged Idaho hay producers in 2024.

On top of all that, the dairy market has been difficult, said Steve Hines, University of Idaho Extension educator. Dairymen have made offers on hay, and sellers have refused those offers, he said.

A lot of hay was produced across the West in 2023, with Idaho No. 1 in the nation for alfalfa production at 4.5 million tons.

May 1, 2024, total hay stocks were up 46.6% year over year, and Idaho’s stocks were up 61% year over year.

Inventory

“There was just a lot of hay that was produced and a lot of hay sitting out there in stacks. … That’s not a good story if you’re a hay producer, and I don’t know that the story’s going to get any better,” he said.

Idaho’s alfalfa hay acres have stayed fairly steady over the years. But the amount of annual alfalfa production per milking cow has gone from about 21 tons in 1990 to about 7 tons.

That’s reflected in a dairy herd that continues to grow but also the amount of alfalfa hay in the dairy ration. That has gone from about 10 pounds of alfalfa per milking cow per day 10 years ago to around 3 pounds to 5 pounds.

“The nutritionists continue to pull alfalfa out of the ration. There’s also less dairies across the West that are competing for alfalfa,” he said.

Milk prices

The good news is Idaho milk prices are back in the breakeven range, and dairymen overall are starting to feel a little more optimistic. But they tend to be buying hay as they need it, he said.

As for prices, there hasn’t been much difference between premium and supreme alfalfa hay all season long. Prices have hovered from $170 and $185 a ton all summer, and there hasn’t been much movement.

As for the hay price in 2025, it’ll be highly correlated with the price of corn and definitely influenced by the price of milk, he said.

“I think the price of hay is going to strengthen from what it was this last year … the dairy markets are coming up, there’s some optimism there and eventually we’re going to get rid of some of this supply that’s out there,” he said.

He wouldn’t be surprised to see dairy quality hay in the $200 to $225 range.

“I think we’ve hit a bottom, and things are going to start improving. I can’t see the price going down more than it is,” he said.