The Washington Department of Ecology reported Jan. 6 that greenhouse gas emissions dropped during COVID shutdowns in 2020, but rebounded in 2021, moving the state out of compliance with its carbon-reduction law.

Carbon emissions declined by 13% in 2020 to 88.3 million tons. Greenhouse gases rose 9% in 2021 to 96.1 million tons, as emissions, particularly from trains, jets and ships, returned to pre-COVID levels.

The greenhouse gas inventory, already several years old, shows the state is not on track to have a carbon-free economy by 2050, a requirement embedded in state law.

Ecology said the full effects of such climate policies as cap-and-trade, low-carbon fuel standard, new building codes, and electric vehicle and green-energy mandates have yet to show up.

“We expected to see a rise in emissions coming out of the pandemic,” Ecology Director Laura Watson said in a statement.

“But we’re also seeing promising trends in energy efficiency, clean vehicle adoption and renewable energy production that will only grow stronger as a result of the climate policies Washington has put in place,” she said.

Greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 were 6% lower than the baseline 1990 level, temporarily bringing the state on track to reduce emissions by 45% by 2030 and 95% by 2050 as mandated by state law.

“All it took was a global pandemic for them to meet the target,” Washington Policy Center vice president of research Todd Myers said.

COVID killed 7.1 million people, including 1.2 million in the U.S., according to the World Health Organization. Washington will have to see three more COVID-sized reductions in emissions to meet its 2030 goal, Myers said.

“The reduction target for 2030 is arbitrary,” he said. “Politicians are going to have to get over that and admit the number can’t be achieved.”

Washington’s greenhouse gas emissions peaked in 2000 at 111.9 million tons. Emissions dropped to 94.4 million tons in 2015, but began rising again, until the COVID-related drop in 2020.

According to state law, carbon emissions in 2050 must be 4.6 million tons, the same volume of greenhouse gases given off in 2021 by cow burps and manure.

Outgoing Gov. Jay Inslee has proclaimed Washington and his administration a leader in fighting climate change. Ecology is due to report on carbon emissions in 2024, Inslee’s last year in office, in 2028.