Even though hay stocks in Idaho on Dec. 1 were down nearly 14% year over year to 2.2 million tons, there’s still plenty of hay out there due to lower demand.

“I think one of the main things this winter is that we just haven’t had a winter,” said Steve Hines, University of Idaho extension educator for Jerome County.

So cattle producers, especially on the beef cow side, haven’t had to feed the amount of hay they would in a more normal winter.

“You drive around, you still see a lot of cows that are out on pasture. Now they’re feeding them, but they’re not having to feed them near as much as they would if it was cold and wet,” he said.

In addition, dairy producers have struggled with milk margins.

Dairy hay

The milk price outlook is starting to look better, and most of the dairies are moving in a positive direction. But they still aren’t buying much hay and are looking for feeder quality hay, he said.

“There’s getting to be less and less of that available. But I still … don’t see anything that makes me think the price of hay is going to go up drastically,” he said.

It’ll probably go up a little, but he doesn’t see anything that’s going to move prices to $225 or $250 a ton for premium dairy hay.

“The market isn’t there,” he said.

In general dairy-quality hay was running an average of $175 a ton last year, swinging between $170 and $190 last summer.

Not much hay is moving right now, but Idaho’s FOB hay prices last week were $170 for supreme, $140 to $165 for premium, $125 to $140 for good and $115 to $130 for feeder.

Milk price

“It looks like the price of milk is moving up a little and so the price of hay will probably follow that … as they tend to be very highly correlated,” he said.

But without a winter, there’s going to be a lot of hay available.

“Based on the fact we’ve had a pretty warm winter so far and there doesn’t appear to be any information that hay acres are going to decline significantly, it would seem that hay stocks are going to be high,” he said

He doesn’t see any indicators right now there’s going to be huge demand for hay that would make stock go away and make prices climb.

Dairy ration

He thinks dairies have purchased all the high-quality hay they need and are substituting other protein feeds for alfalfa.

“They’re not purchasing the high-quality hay for the protein component of the ratio,” he said.

Hay purchases are going to be more for the roughage, as well as for heifers, dry cows and other classes of non-milking cattle, he said.

“The amount of alfalfa going into mixed rations on the dairy has continued to decline,” he said.

Not that many years ago, producers might have fed 10 or 12 pounds per cow per day and now the average is around 6 pounds per cow per day — with some less than that.

“So they’re obviously needing less alfalfa,” he said.