Randy Fortenbery expects to talk about “significantly lower prices” for some commodities, and what it means for farm income, when he delivers his annual economic outlook at the Spokane Ag Show.

“I don’t have answers yet,” Fortenbery told the Capital Press in November. “Wheat looks pretty poor right now, grain markets in general are not particularly attractive.”

Fortenbery is the Thomas B. Mick Endowed Chair in Small Grains Economics at Washington State University.

His forecast will also touch on the cattle and fruit markets. WSU’s IMPACT Center releases its annual “Status of Washington Agribusiness Report” in January, a “concise overview” of the state’s current and near-term agricultural activity.

He’ll talk about production expenses — what’s happening in the energy and input markets.

Fortenbery expects to dive into specific policy proposals coming out of the Trump administration, including tariff discussions, and possibilities for the next farm bill.

“Some tariff policy is very likely,” he said, noting former Vice President Kamala Harris was also promoting tariffs, although possibly to a lesser extent than President Donald Trump. “No matter who was elected, we might have probably seen a change in the tariff regime.”

Last fall, Trump floated possible “relatively high” tariffs on China, and 100% tariffs on Canada and Mexico.

“It’s hard to know how much of that is posturing and how much is going to be actual policy,” Fortenbery said. “How much of it’s being thrown out there to improve his negotiating position in trade agreements and how much of it is serious.”

Fortenbery doesn’t see unanimous agreement against Republican congressional groups about what sort of tariff policy would be most attractive.

He cited a radio interview with a Heritage Foundation leader who supports aggressive tariffs against China, generally considered a “bad actor” in the world market, but opposes most other tariffs.

“What (Trump) gets from his support groups also might matter, how he’s influenced,” Fortenbery said. “It will be interesting to see how some of these other advisers feel about his tariff proposals, how much of it actually really happens and how much it doesn’t.”

Wheat prices

During an industry meeting in the early fall, Fortenbery told wheat farmers that he felt the market had found a bottom.

“And now it’s down another 10 cents today,” he said in November.

That was during harvest in the Midwest, as relatively abundant corn and wheat supplies put downward pressure on each other’s prices.

“I tend to think we’re sort of at the bottom end of the market, but that doesn’t mean it still can’t go lower a bit,” Fortenbery said.

Marketing pointers from Randy Fortenbery

• Try to develop pricing objectives at planting time for the new crop. These should be based on current market conditions and the outlook for the coming months. You may have multiple prices for different portions of the crop.

• It is good to develop some price objectives early even if you do not want to start forward pricing your crop until March or April because of yield worries.

• If you are storing a crop already harvested, try to think less in terms of future price direction, and more about whether the market is offering you a profit over your storage costs. If you can lock in a minimum of 5 cents per bushel per month for storage that may turn out better than just hoping prices go up in the future.

• Be careful about storing a crop if the local price is already quite high, by historical standards, to the current futures price. Even if futures prices go up, cash prices may not.

• In times of high price volatility, try to step back from the day-to-day price fluctuations and pick sale prices with a longer-term view of market activity.

• Pay attention to the general market outlook but be careful about speculating with too much of your crop on higher prices if current prices already provide an opportunity to cover costs and earn a margin.

• Don’t listen to your neighbor — he or she probably didn’t sell for $1 a bushel more than you!

• Marketing plans need to be flexible as conditions change, but those that take the time early to develop a marketing plan often do better than those with a wait-and-see approach.