PORTLAND — President Donald Trump uses tariffs primarily as a bargaining tactic rather than implementing them, said Callum Williams, senior economics reporter for The Economist.

“They will remain largely a negotiating ploy,” added Williams, the keynote speaker at the Oregon Wine Symposium Feb. 3.

During Trump’s first term, tariffs didn’t dramatically increase overall taxes on foreign imports, Williams said.

“The bark was a lot worse than the bite,” he said.

Rapidly shifting landscape

Williams, from England, brought an outsider’s perspective to U.S. politics, the shifting economic landscape and Oregon wine.

He spoke the day after a trade war seemingly erupted between the U.S. and neighbors Canada and Mexico.

But Williams told the audience the morning of Feb. 3 that tariffs against Mexico — and retaliatory measures — had been put on hold after a deal was reached.

“The news is moving quite fast at the moment,” Williams said.

Later that day, a similar delay happened with Canada. In a statement, the Oregon Wine Board said the pause was encouraging as Canada is the top export market for Oregon wine.

Increased tariffs on China remained in play that afternoon, however. American wine exports there have dropped due to diminished demand.

Consumer sentiment

Williams said economic growth spurs wine spending. “When the U.S. economy does well, you will do well,” he added.

Consumer sentiment also drives sales and was a major factor in the latest presidential election.

Despite economic growth, a strong stock market, wage gains and low unemployment, Americans had never been as angry with the economy as they were in 2022, making it obvious there would be a change, Williams said.

The price of staples such as gas and food rose more than inflation and increased federal support also ended after 2021, leaving lower income residents without a substantial financial boost.

“It’s not surprising that people would feel they’ve been shortchanged by the economy,” Williams said.

Mass deportations

During President Joe Biden’s administration, there also was an unprecedented surge in migration, particularly undocumented immigrants, which liberals have tried to downplay, Williams said.

“We just can’t pretend that didn’t happen,” he said.

Mass deportations were more of a concern than tariffs on the overall U.S. economy for Williams.

There’s been an increase in deportations, Williams said, but nowhere near the level that Trump has talked about.

Deporting 1 million people would be a substantial loss of purchasing power and drop the U.S. gross domestic product by 1%. Deporting 8 million people would result in a Great Depression scale event, Williams said.

Tourism, globalization

Tourism has a major effect on domestic wine sales, so perception of America is problematic, Williams said.

Trump also is associated with a strong dollar, which also makes it more expensive for foreigners to vacation in the U.S.

Williams said Trump was marginally better for the economy compared to other presidents and the U.S. economy being unleashed in his second term seemed unlikely.

Perhaps more impactful was other countries copying Trump and retreating from globalization.