SPOKANE — Art Douglas admitted his weather forecast isn’t especially ‘rosy’ this year.

Easily 60% of the U.S. is under drought, and that’s likely to expand in February through the summer, Douglas told farmers Feb. 4 at the Spokane Ag Show.

Douglas, professor emeritus at Creighton University in Omaha, Neb., first spoke at the ag show during the winter of 1977-1978, and has been a popular mainstay ever since.

Douglas predicts a cold, dry winter and spring.

“It’s going to be super-dry all the way from California into the Plains,” he said. “If you look at that forecast and think of spring wheat throughout the midsection of the United States, as well as winter wheat, it’s not a good forecast for wheat in the U.S.”

The Pacific Northwest will also be “flirting with drought,” he said. “This is going to be a dry spring for the United States.”

Sea surface temperatures

Global sea surface temperatures have steadily risen over the past 40 years, Douglas said.  But in 2023 they jumped to a new climate state.

El Nino was first blamed for the warming, but La Nina in 2024-2025 has not reversed the trend.

Large warm water pools in both the North Pacific and North Atlantic are overriding Nino influences, Douglas said.

“They have nothing really to do with El Nino, this is a completely different phenomenon that started popping up three to four years ago,” he said. “It’s what’s really driving a lot of the world weather right now.”

Winter

Atmospheric circulation in February will be dominated by a blocking ridge in the North Pacific Ocean. Troughs in the Western Hemisphere will be “uncharacteristically weak” for the winter.

For much of the U.S., the pattern is dry, with higher upper level troughs blocking an active storm  track across the country.

An offshore trough will try to bring rain to the immediate West Coast, Douglas said.

“How successful it’s going to be, I don’t know,” he said.

It looks like California will get the moisture, while Idaho, Oregon and Washington won’t get quite as heavy precipitation.

“Maybe one of these storms will get up here in February,” he said.

Arctic air from Canada could potentially move south into the Pacific Northwest or the Plains, he said.

Spring

For the spring, Pacific and Atlantic high pressure ridges will force the main jetstream to be just north along the Canadian border. The southern two-thirds of the U.S. will trend warmer than normal, while the northern border will be cold, Douglas said.

“Not a stormy spring, the main storminess is going to be across Canada, way to the north, but the threat then of cold air coming down towards the south,” he said.

Severe drought conditions will intensify across the West, he said.

If the strong North Pacific ridge moves farther west, Alaska storms could improve moisture in the Pacific Northwest.

“Not a particularly rosy forecast for spring crops going into the summer,” Douglas said.

Moisture may increase in May in the Pacific Northwest.

“I think that’s going to be a real critical month for you folks,” Douglas said. “You’re going to be discouraged going into February, March and April with the dryness, but maybe we can pull it off.”

Summer

The overall summer pattern is warm and dry for much of the U.S., especially the northern Plains and the West, Douglas said.

“Here in the Pacific Northwest, a great big ridge on top of you — warm and dry, fires early, not a good forecast,” Douglas said.

Between July and August, the warm-dry pattern in the northwest half of the country will shift into the northeast.

‘Neutral Nino’

Current NOAA forecasts indicate that La Nina will peak in the next two months, with sea surface temperatures warming to near normal levels by late spring. La Nina conditions will be erased by May.

There’s presently “no clue” in forecast modeling whether an El Nino will develop later this year or whether conditions will warm up to normal, and stay normal, Douglas said.

“I’m not willing to say today if El Nino’s going to come this year or not,” he said, saying NOAA modeling currently indicates a “neutral Nino condition.”

It would be rare for an El Nino to develop after September.

Douglas expects 2025 to most resemble the years 2002, 2009, 2021 and 2004. The years 2002 and 2009 were both moderately short El Nino years, 2021 moved from a La Nina to neutral and 2004 was a weak El Nino, he said.