USDA’s latest market estimate projects larger wheat supplies both in the U.S. and worldwide, which doesn’t leave much room for wheat sales, market analysts say.

“It makes upward mobility in wheat prices significantly more challenging,” said Dan Steiner. Steiner retired from Morrow County Grain Growers in 2023 and now works as an analyst in Boardman, Ore.

In a normal year, the industry would have sold at least 15% of the crop. Steiner estimates that less than 5% has been sold so far.

The USDA report projects fewer wheat exports.  An average crop means at least average marketing is needed, Steiner said.

“If we’re behind in marketing now, we’re not going to catch up in the foreseeable future because the market’s not going to give us a great opportunity to do that,” he said.

That could mean a lot more wheat entering the market at harvest time than normal, putting pressure on cash prices, he said.

Soft white wheat and hard red winter wheat export numbers were unchanged, said Byron Behne, senior marketing manager at Northwest Grain Growers in Walla Walla, Wash.

The report increased world wheat supply projections by 2.5 million metric tons, most coming from Australia.

USDA projections also favor big crops in Russia, which could happen, and India, which is not likely, Steiner said.

Behne is optimistic that Russia’s wheat could take a hit.

“It wasn’t in very good shape going into the winter, I can’t imagine it got dramatically better over the winter,” he said. “Just the threat of (Russia) maybe not having an optimal crop this year should be worth something.”

Spring rallies

For the spring, market movement upward is most likely to be driven by wheat futures and not the cash price, Steiner said.

Farmers should use any price rally as a selling opportunity, which will be limited with bearish hard red winter, soft red winter and dark northern spring wheat markets, said Darin Newsom, Omaha, Neb., market analyst.

“Markets don’t like to go one direction all the time, so there will be rallies, there will be a weather scare of some kind,” Newsom said. “They may not be great big rallies, they may not extend very far, they may not draw a lot of buying interest.”

Dark northern spring wheat imports

The report calls for 5 million bushels more of dark northern spring wheat imported into the U.S. The likeliest source would be Canada, and trade friction with President Donald Trump makes that scenario unlikely, Steiner and Newsom said.

Steiner believes Trump is using tariffs and “short-term disruptions” to move pieces on the game board to lower interest rates to cause loan rate reductions and refinance “$7 trillion worth” of government debt.

“As far as farmers are concerned, interest is a real thing,” Steiner said. “Prices suck, they’re below the cost of production almost everywhere.”

Corn

The USDA did not adjust corn export demand numbers in its report for a second month, Behne said.

Wheat and corn prices can be closely tied. Corn was helping wheat in the most recent price rally by rallying at the same time, Behne said. Soft white wheat had been exported as feed wheat.

“If corn’s not going to go back to $5 a bushel, maybe that hurts wheat a little bit,” he said. “If corn’s going to stay cheaper, maybe that keeps a lid on wheat prices.”

Weather

As northern hemisphere crops break dormancy, “weather’s pretty much going to be taking the reins of the markets here pretty soon,” Behne said.

“I don’t really see a need for markets to go a lot lower right now — unless the weather’s just perfect this spring,” he said. “The chances of it being perfect are pretty low. There should be some kind of event at some point to give us an opportunity to get some better sales.”