USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service forecasts that California’s 2022 almond crop will be 11% smaller than last year due to frost damage earlier this year and ongoing drought.

In its Objective Measurement Report released this month, the agency predicts this year’s production will be around 2.60 billion meat pounds, down from last year’s crop of 2.92 billion meat pounds. The forecast is based on 1.37 million bearing acres statewide.

NASS predicts the Nonpareil almond variety, which represents 38% of California’s total almond production, will produce a 2022 crop with a 12% smaller average nut set per tree than last year’s Nonpareil crop.

However, though fewer Nonpareil nuts are expected this year, the average Nonpareil kernel weight measured was 1.55 grams, up slightly from 2021’s weight.

According to the report, some orchards are down in production because they were hit by freezing weather the last week of February.

“Frost damage was observed, with reports that some acres would be left unharvested without an adequate nut set,” wrote NASS.

Drought has also been hard on the state’s almond orchards.

“As drought conditions persist, water availability is a top concern for almond growers,” reported NASS.

In a recent release, the Almond Board of California noted similar challenges for the industry in what it dubbed “a complicated year.”

“Some growers were impacted by frost in spring, while the entire industry, and all California farmers, have been navigating a difficult water year and continued logistical issues impacting the ability to ship almonds to meet consumer demand around the world,” wrote the Almond Board.

Brian Wahlbrink, chair of the Almond Board of California’s Board of Directors, said growers have been working hard “in the face of challenging circumstances” this year.

Richard Waycott, Almond Board president and CEO, expressed a similar sentiment.

“Almond growers are putting what resources they can afford this year into producing their crop, and their efforts show,” he said.

Despite an expected smaller crop and ongoing industry challenges, demand for almonds remains strong. The Almond Board’s April, May and June 2022 position reports, which contain the latest trade statistics, showed that almond exports set records for all three months.