When Duane Lenz watches the cattle market, he sticks to the basics: Demand and supply.

“There’s a lot of things going on in both of those arenas right now in the cattle industry,” Lenz told the Capital Press in November.

For supply, cattle numbers have been pulled down by drought and a lack of profitability, while demand has been “excellent,” he said.

“We have questioned a little bit our prices getting so much better than our competitors — say pork and poultry,” he said. “How strong can demand be and how long will that strong demand picture last?”

Lenz estimated in November that fed cattle will range between $1.80 to $2 per pound.

Lenz will offer his economic outlook at the Spokane Ag Show.

Based near Denver, Colo., Lenz retired as a Cattle Fax market analyst after about 35 years, and is now an industry consultant. He grew up south of Denver on a diversified farm and ranch and got a degree in animal science from Colorado State University.

He hopes ranchers leave his presentation with a three- to five-year plan for their business.

“This is where we are, this is what the data suggests the next few years,” he said. “Should I be expanding? Should I be decreasing my herd? What should I expect fundamentally moving forward on the supply side?”

Watching the markets move

Lenz’s favorite thing about watching the markets: How quickly they move.

“There’s always something going on, always something to be thinking about and analyzing,” he said. “I really like looking at the data and then trying to apply it to the market.”

If he could change one thing, it would be the influence that big money such as hedge funds has on the futures market. They can swing the market past what fundamentals would suggest, he said.

His biggest advice to ranchers: Stay informed and find someone who can help them out.

“Never be afraid to take a profit,” he said with a chuckle. “Get a plan and stick with a plan. We find a lot of people have great plans, but when it comes time to execute them, they want to change their minds and do something different. Get a plan put together and then follow the plan, unless something really changes in the market fundamentals that wasn’t expected.”