Final authority to breach the four lower Snake River dams remains with the 535 members of Congress.

But agricultural stakeholders, tribes and environmental groups agree on one thing: The Columbia Basin Restoration Initiative recently signed by the Biden administration, four Northwest tribes and the states of Oregon and Washington is a pathway to breaching the dams.

The tribes and environmentalists say removing the dams is necessary for the recovery of several salmon species.

But agricultural stakeholders say tearing out the dams would have many other impacts, including irrigation water availability, power supply and transportation. Combined, replacing them or creating work-arounds would cost taxpayers tens of billions of dollars, they say.

Whether the dams — Ice Harbor, Lower Monumental, Little Goose and Lower Granite — ever come out is anyone’s guess, but if they did, what would the impact to the region be?

That’s something the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has studied “off and on” for more than 25 years, said Dylan Peters, public affairs specialist for the Corps district in Walla Walla, Wash.

The Corps will next study the impacts on transportation and recreation if the dams are removed. Those studies have not yet been funded, Peters said.

Under the new agreement, the federal government will review existing environmental compliance documents — such as the 2020 Columbia River System Operations environmental impact statement — and any additional information provided by the states, tribes and other stakeholders, and “initiate any additional environmental compliance its review determines to be necessary.”

The federal government is still discussing the steps it will take to meet that commitment, Peters said.

Some aren’t sure about salmon recovery

If the dams are taken out, is fish recovery guaranteed?

The answer depends on who you ask. Environmentalists see it as a silver bullet, allowing the salmon to thrive. Others, including agricultural groups, aren’t so sure.

“The short answer is yes,” said Brian Brooks, executive director of the Idaho Wildlife Federation. “Thousands of scientists … and other representative organizations who have dedicated their lives to fish and fish conservation have confirmed, by their expert opinion, that fish would return.”

“We have a really high confidence that we can recover healthy, abundant salmon and steelhead populations,” said Bill Arthur, chair of the Snake and Columbia River Salmon campaigns for the Sierra Club. “That’s based on the science, reports and studies that have been done, as well as the history of the area and with other dam removals.”

To achieve “healthy and abundant” population benchmarks, Brooks, Arthur and other environmentalists point to Snake River spring and summer chinook smolt-to-adult return ratios (SARs). They should be a sustained 4% or more, but have been below 1% for years, they say.

”That low level of returns will lead to extinction,” said Amanda Goodin, senior attorney for Earthjustice, a nonprofit law firm with more than 200 lawyers who represent environmental groups.

Barging on the Columbia-Snake River system

“The Lower Snake River navigation locks provide timely, safe and efficient means to move bulk cargo, reducing transportation cost and minimizing greenhouse gas emissions, while fully actualizing the 465-mile inland navigation channel between the Pacific Ocean and Lewiston, Idaho,” said Dylan Peters, public affairs specialist for the Corps district in Walla Walla, Wash.

While navigation on the Columbia and Snake rivers dates back to the 1800s, prior to establishment of the Walla Walla district’s locks, it was “difficult and dangerous,” he said, due to temperamental seasonal flows – higher in the spring and summer and lower in the fall and winter.

“Steamboats could only travel during certain time periods, conditions permitting and were in danger of being run aground on unpredictable low points, or worse completely wrecked,” he said.

According to the Pacific Northwest Waterways Association, here’s what it would take to move product. 

One 3,500-ton barge equals 35 100-ton jumbo hopper railcars, or 134 26-ton large semi-trucks.

One 14,400-ton four-tow barge equals 1.4 100-unit trains, or 538 trucks.

Wheat traffic on the river has remained steady since 2001, said Anthony Pena, government relations manager for the PNWA.

Upriver shipments are significant as well.

• Based on information from one barge operator, fertilizer has increased by 120% from 2014-2023, increasing demand to barge, Pena said. Ethanol increased 132% from 2008-2023.
• Petroleum decreased 38% for one company from 2001-2023, but more than one company ships petroleum and one moves Chevron products in large volumes, so overall petroleum shipments could have increased, Pena said.

“NOAA Fisheries does not rely heavily on SARs as a barometer because they do not capture survival across the whole life cycle,” said Michael Milstein, public affairs officer for NOAA Fisheries.

Last year, NOAA West Coast Regional Office branch chief Ritchie Graves estimated about a 75% survival rate for salmon moving through the four lower Snake River dams. Mortality would likely be cut in half if the dams were removed, he estimated.

However, warming ocean conditions and delayed mortality — when juvenile fish die later as a result of stress from passing through the dams — are unknown variables for fish survival.

“Currently, there are varied projections” for delayed mortality, Milstein said. “If there is high delayed mortality, then there may be a greater effect from breaching.”

Tribes would look to stabilize habitat 

Before the dams were built, tributaries to the Columbia River ran wild, including the Snake, said Austin Smith Jr., general manager for the Confederated Tribes of Warm Springs natural resources branch.

“They ran a little bit lower, you had free-moving bodies of water that allowed salmon to travel through these areas into farther reaches into the mountains and other tributaries,” he said.

Tribal members would travel along the tributaries, using trails, campsites and fishing sites, Smith said.

If the dams are removed, the land would be used to restore habitat that has been “basically flooded for years since the dams were put in,” he said. That includes stabilizing habitat for fish, birds and other wildlife and replanting native vegetation and trees, with “more fertile soil” from increased sediment.

“When these dams were put in, it flooded a lot of historical villages, grave sites, medicinal gathering areas and cultural food gathering areas,” Smith said. “The Tribes would probably want an extensive study done to identify some of the key areas where the Tribes used to be.”

Representatives of the Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation and Confederated Tribes of the Yakama Nation declined to comment for this story. Representatives of the Nez Perce Tribe did not respond to Capital Press requests for comment.

The river’s behavior dependent on upstream dams

River volumes would not change a great deal, as the dams are run of the river, with no flood storage capacity, said Peters, the Corps spokesman. River velocities would increase.

River behavior would also be subject to upstream operations at the three Hells Canyon dams, he said.

Water temperatures could be expected to be higher, unless the Corps is required to continue releasing water from Dworshak Dam on the Clearwater River to cool the Snake River, he said.

With the dams gone, river flows would likely move sediments downstream, causing short term impacts on all species in the lower Snake River and possibly into the McNary Reservoir on the Columbia River near Kennewick, Wash.

“Presently, lessons are being learned on this topic from the removal of the Klamath River dams,” Peters said.

There’s currently no indication that any communities would be displaced or lose ground, but erosion along the river banks could be expected because of increased water velocities, Peters said.

Barging transportation would cease

Barging would no longer be a viable transportation method, Peters said.

About 60% of U.S. wheat exports move through the Columbia-Snake river system, including wheat that arrived to Portland/Vancouver by barge, rail and truck. About 10% of all U.S wheat exports arrive to Portland/Vancouver on barges that passed through the lower Snake River dams.

A larger percent of exports arrived to Portland via barge but were loaded on the Columbia below the Snake River dams.

The full Columbia-Snake river system includes barging upriver from Portland/Vancouver and bulk shipping downriver from Portland/Vancouver to ocean.

The dams hold back 80 to 100 feet of water, creating navigation pools deep enough to travel to Lewiston, Idaho, said Rob Rich, vice president of marine services for Shaver Transportation Co., a tug and barge company.

“No dams, no locks, no depth of water, no barge transport,” Rich said.

Without the Snake River dams, navigation would go only as far upstream as East Pasco and Burbank, Wash., he said.

Rich estimates 650 to 700 barge loads of wheat originate on the Snake River each year.

Each barge carries 3,600 tons, or 120,000 bushels, of wheat, Rich said.

About 28% of Idaho’s wheat crop goes onto barges, said Scott Corbitt, general manager of the Port of Lewiston, which is upstream from the four dams.

Loss of barging would increase grain shipping costs by 30 to 50 cents per bushel, or $70 million a year, Corbitt estimated. Those added costs would have to be absorbed by farmers.

Farming irrigation affected

Dam removal would impact approximately 40,000 acres of irrigated farmland upstream of the Ice Harbor Dam, including orchards, potatoes and other vegetable crops, said Peters, with the Corps.

Farmers would need to find other sources of water or switch to crops such as dryland wheat or chickpeas, which have lower yields and produce far less revenue.

“Should the reservoirs be removed, it is likely that wells at the current levels in that area may no longer be viable, so simply extending wells may be costly,” Peters said.

The Columbia-Snake River Irrigators Association estimates it would cost the state and Bonneville Power Administration up to $1 billion to mitigate disruption to irrigators during dam removal.

Disruption would be unavoidable for one to two years while the system of 25 pump stations is rebuilt, said Darryll Olsen, board representative for the association. Overall regional, annual household income losses cannot be fully mitigated, he noted.

Land value likely to see changes

“Will there be an impact to the market and what properties sell for if they tear out those dams?” said John Rosenau, Franklin County assessor in Pasco, Wash. “I don’t have a crystal ball, but I can tell you emphatically, yes.”

In Franklin County, some irrigated farmland sells for more than $20,000 per acre, and the average is between $18,000 and $19,000, Rosenau said. Dryland farmland sells for $800 to $1,000 per acre, less for rangeland, which is about $100 per acre.

Rosenau expects an impact of “literally billions of dollars” in Franklin County alone.

“It would have an impact on every piece of property, it will have an impact on the sales value of residential homes and industry,” he said.

Rosenau used an example in which all property values suddenly drop by 50%. If that happened, it would double the tax rates residents pay to the various taxing districts.

“You would end up having a massive tax base decrease, and yet the budgets are still going to be there,” he said. “It would raise the property taxes on the remaining people terribly.”

Trucks and rail may transport products

It takes 35 100-ton jumbo hopper railcars or 134 semi-trucks to carry the same amount of wheat as a single 3,500-ton barge.

Typically, a tugboat pushes four barges, so a single four-tow barge carries the same amount of wheat as 140 railcars, or 538 semi-trucks, according to the Pacific Northwest Waterways Association. Shuttle trains are up to 115 railcars.

There has been discussion that trains would be a viable methodology to get products to market, but the current Lower Columbia train corridor is thought to have limited capacity and little area to expand, said Peters, with the Corps.

“Fuller study would help better understand this issue,” he said.

Some dam critics suggest updating or replacing existing or abandoned short-line railroads to handle grain.

“The navigation-wheat interests are deathly afraid of an objective analysis of the Lower Snake River rail transport alternative,” said Olsen, with the irrigators association.

The association believes the state needs to request a proposal from railroad operators Watco, a supply chain logistics company, and the Union Pacific Railroad for an operational and financial review of the rail analysis.

It would take a $1.3 billion capital investment to expand the highway and rail network to ensure the delivery of 5 million tons of goods currently shipped by barge, said Corbitt, of the Port of Lewiston.

River terminals on the Snake River do not possess the rail track required to load out unit trains of 110 cars efficiently, said Eric Jessup, Washington State University assistant research professor. Most don’t have the necessary space to develop large circular track needed for shuttle rail terminals.

Railroads haven’t shown they can handle the traffic they have now, agriculture stakeholders say.

“Our railroad colleagues candidly state they couldn’t get us timely deliveries with cars to gather from across the U.S. and Canada. They cannot match locally available barges and tugs in the heart of busy seasons,” said Alex McGregor, chairman of The McGregor Co., which provides seed and crop inputs to the region’s farmers. “The rationale that everything could be handled by rail doesn’t hold water.”

Pollution concerns

Shifting from barge to truck and rail would result in increases in nitrogen dioxide, carbon dioxide and other harmful emissions by more than 1.25 million tons per year, according to the Pacific Northwest Waterways Association’s 2023 “social justice impact” report. The association is a nonprofit trade group that supports “efficient, reliable and environmentally sustainable waterways.”

PNWA equates the carbon dioxide increase to adding one large coal-fired power plant every two to three years.

Energy: Hydropower production drops

The four dams currently have a peak output of 3,033 megawatts — enough electricity to power one-third of the homes in Washington, said Peters, of the Corps. That’s 18 times more than the power produced by the four Klamath River dams, which have been demolished.

“The (Lower Snake River) dams’ greatest value are their ability to meet power grid demands during times of emergency, such as hot or cold weather snaps from California to Montana,” Peters said. “Their power production can be ramped up to meet grid needs in minutes, something only viable through hydropower or natural gas.”

Adding additional renewable energy and capacity would take approximately five to seven years after congressional approval to breach the dams and possibly up to 20 years if additional new large-scale transmission lines are required, according to the Bonneville Power Administration, citing a 2022 study from the Energy and Environmental Economics Inc. consulting firm.

“These dams more than pay for themselves in hydropower production alone,” Peters said. “It costs approximately $150 million to operate and maintain these four dams annually. Meanwhile, they generate an average of $300 million in hydropower each year.”

Power rates certainly will increase

BPA serves about 2 million public power households across Washington, Oregon, Idaho and Montana.

Total replacement costs of the power the dams provide would be about $12 billion, according to BPA. Public power costs would increase by 8% to 18% per year, across most scenarios.

Battery storage cannot cost-effectively replace hydro capacity in the Northwest due to charging limitations during energy shortfall events, BPA said.

Some larger public utility districts in BPA’s coverage area have access to broader networks of electricity, said Doug Johnson, BPA senior spokesman. Some smaller municipalities rely directly on BPA for all of their power and may have less flexibility, he said.

“There is not a consumer-owned utility in (BPA’s) footprint whose costs would not go up significantly as a result of breaching and replacement, with what’s available today,” Johnson said.

Next steps

A possible new environmental impact statement is concerning, particularly under the Biden administration’s “lofty and undefined” goal for “healthy and abundant” species, said Anthony Pena, PNWA government relations manager.

“We certainly support increased engagement with affected stakeholders,” Pena said. “However, our confidence in the administration’s ability to do so has waned from our recent experience in the (White House Council on Environmental Quality)-led mediation.”

Many ag stakeholders felt they were excluded from the mediation process.

Asked if fish survival outweighs possible negative consequences, Idaho Wildlife Federation’s Brooks argues that it’s a “false duality perpetrated by political rhetoric.”

“We’re not interested in taking out the dams until we have power replaced, until we have transportation infrastructure in place,” he said. “My organization talks to a lot of farmers. We want them to know we are not here to hurt them, we want them to know we want their price per bushel to remain the same and even better.”

Salmon recovery on the lower Snake River has cost $26 billion so far, adjusted for inflation, Brooks estimates. He cites a “cumulation of spending” from BPA’s fish mitigation program, NOAA-funded projects, and the cost of “forgone” water sent downstream to mitigate the impacts of the dams, to increase current and cool the water.

“What if we took $26 billion and we built new infrastructure that doesn’t impede fish, is new rail, that’s clean energy, that’s clean transportation infrastructure?” he asked.

‘Healthy and abundant” fish numbers

The terms “healthy and harvestable” or “healthy and abundant” derive from the Columbia Basin Partnership Task Force, which convened in 2017 to bring together federal agencies, tribes, states, and regional stakeholders representing commercial and recreational fishing interests, ports and navigation interests, hydropower producers and providers, other non-governmental organizations, and the agricultural community.

” Low-range quantitative goals for natural-origin salmon and steelhead on the spawning grounds in aggregate total 437,000 fish, which is approximately 1.2 times the current mean abundance numbers,” the partnership’s Phase 2 report states. “High-range quantitative goals total 2.8 million salmon and steelhead, which is approximately four times higher than current mean abundance numbers.”

Current mean abundance numbers are from the 2008-2017 time period, according to the October 2020 report. 

They “generally fall within the target goal range but below the high goal range, which is indicative of additional scope for improvement.”