The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service is predicting a slightly larger U.S. sweet cherry crop this year, but Washington state’s will be significantly smaller.

This year’s U.S. crop is predicted at 355,000 tons, up from 354,300 in 2023.

Washington, the nation’s leading cherry producer, is anticipated to see its harvest drop about 11% to 185,000 tons.

California’s crop is pegged at 105,000 tons this season, down 2.3%.

Oregon, ranked third for sweet cherry production in the U.S., is forecast for a harvest of 43,000 tons, up 11%.

Industry forecasts smaller harvest

The USDA estimate is more optimistic than the industry forecast for the season.

Northwest Cherry Growers’ initial estimate for Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana and Utah was a harvest potential of 20.9 million 20-pound boxes.

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B.J. Thurlby, president of the organization, said the latest estimate is for 17 million to 19 million boxes, or roughly 170,000 to 190,000 tons for the region. The season probably will end up slightly lower than the 18.7 million box crop from 2023.

Overlap with California isn’t expected to be a problem this year, however, and the quality of the crop looks good, Thurlby added.

He said the industry estimates usually are more accurate and thorough than those of the USDA.