The USDA’s updated California almond forecast is 2.8 billion meat pounds, down 7% from the May forecast but still 13% higher than last year’s crop.

The harvest prediction, released July 10 by the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, is based on 1.38 million bearing acres.

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Clarice Turner, president and CEO of the Almond Board of California, said the projection is in line with what the industry expected.

“It reflects both a good bloom and hard work by California almond growers during trying times. For perspective, demand has been strong, consistent and continues to grow, which has reduced the carryout to what may be the smallest in years,” she added, in a news release.

“California almonds shipped at least 212 million pounds each of the first 10 months of this crop year and averaged 230 million pounds a month. Never before has the industry shipped even 200 million pounds 10 months in a row the same crop year,” Turner said.

She said the Almond Board of California expects the almond supply to be similar to what was available the previous season. The USDA has forecast yield at 2,030 pounds per acre, up from 1,790 in 2023.

“The forecasted increase in crop size will mostly be offset by the smaller carryout. Clearly, global demand is strong and consistent,” Turner said.

The 2023 harvest yielded 2.47 billion pounds, 5% below the USDA’s July forecast that year. The value of production was $3.88 billion.

Favorable bloom weather

According to the USDA forecast, this season’s crop experienced mostly favorable weather during bloom, which began the second week in February and finished by the middle of March.

Bee hours were reported to be significantly higher than the past year.

Wet and warm weather in April increased pest and disease pressure, but dry conditions and mild temperatures in May helped the developing crop.

Multiple heat waves across the state during June and July required growers to increase irrigation on their orchards.

Yield and nut data

To get its predictions, the USDA surveyed about 1,900 trees in 950 orchards from May 25 to June 28. The number of orchards sampled was the highest ever for the report and up 40 over the previous season, according to the Almond Board of California.

The USDA has forecasted yield at 2,030 pounds per acre, up from 1,790 in 2023.

The average nut set per tree is 4,072, an increase of 3% compared to the previous year.

Average kernel weight was 1.61 grams, down 4% from 2023.

About 99% of all nuts sized were sound.

The production forecast for the Nonpareil variety was 1.1 billion meat pounds, up 17%.

Nonpareil accounts for 39% of California’s total almond production.