The Agriculture Department again lowered its 2024 and 2025 milk production forecasts in the latest World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report, citing slightly less growth in milk per cow.

2024 production and marketings were projected at 225.8 billion and 224.8 billion pounds, respectively, down 100 million pounds on both from last month’s estimate.

If realized, both would be down 600 million pounds or 0.3% from 2023.

2025 production and marketings were projected at 227.7 billion and 226.7 billion pounds, respectively, down 200 million pounds on both.

If realized, both would be up 1.9 billion pounds or 0.8% from 2024.

The 2024 Class III milk price was projected to average $19.05 per cwt., down 40 cents from last month’s estimate, and compares to $17.02 in 2023 and $21.96 in 2022.

The 2025 average was estimated at $18.95, down 65 cents from a month ago.

The Class IV average for 2024 was estimated at $20.80, down 20 cents from last month’s estimate, and compares to $19.12 in 2023 and $24.47 in 2022. The 2025 average was projected at $20.35, down 85 cents from a month ago.

The U.S. corn outlook calls for smaller supplies, larger exports, and reduced ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks were 52 million bushels lower. Corn production was forecast at a near record 15.2 billion bushels, up 17 million from last month on a 0.2-bushel increase in yield to 183.8 bushels per acre, down 1% from a year ago.

Harvested area was unchanged at 82.7 million acres. Total use was raised to 15.0 billion bushels reflecting greater exports. Ending stocks were cut 58 million bushels to 2.0 billion. The season-average corn price was unchanged at $4.10 per bushel.

Soybean production was forecast at a record 4.6 billion bushels, down 4 million on lower yields but up 10% from 2023. Harvested area was unchanged at 86.3 million acres, up 5% from 2023. Soybean yield was projected at a record 53.1 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushel from the September forecast but up 2.5 bushels from a year ago.

With lower production partly offset by slightly higher beginning stocks, supplies were lowered 2.0 million bushels to 4.9 billion. Ending stocks were unchanged at 550 million bushels. The season-average soybean price was unchanged at $10.80 per bushel.

Bird flu still spreading

Avian influenza continues to take a toll on California herds, as 92 cases have been detected in the past month, according to USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service. HighGround Dairy says that brings the state’s total to 100.

The Los Angeles Times reports that some cows have died but there’s also been heat waves the past six weeks in the Central Valley and temperatures exceeded 100 degrees, “further compounding the flu’s impact.”

“Veterinarians familiar with the cases noted that HPAI is not the direct cause of death,” according to HGD, “But pneumonia and bloat, occurring secondarily to the disease, are responsible.”

Prices still fluid

CME Cheddar block cheese closed Friday at $1.8875 per pound, down 6 cents on the week, down 42.75 cents from its Sept. 11 peak, but still 18.75 cents above a year ago.

The barrels fell to $1.8650 last Thursday, then rallied to a Friday finish matching the blocks at $1.8875, 6.75 cents lower on the week, down 73.50 cents from their Sept. 18 peak, but 24.25 cents above a year ago. Sales totaled 19 loads of block last week and 6 of barrel.

The blocks were down 0.75 cents on Monday Columbus Day, when 4 loads exchanged hands, falling to $1.88, lowest CME price since Aug. 5. They regained 5.75 cents Tuesday on 2 trades, climbing back to $1.9375.

The barrels lost 4.25 cents Monday on 2 trades, falling to $1.89, lowest since April 29, but jumped 4.50 cents Tuesday on 2 trades, hitting $1.89.

Midwest cheesemakers had varying demand reports last week, according to Dairy Market News. Some are steadily moving loads, particularly pizza cheese, Cheddar, and hard Italian.

Makers of other types said their customers quieted seasonally.

Milk availability remained somewhat snug, with mid-week prices at 50 cents to $2-over Class III.

Class III milk demand from western cheese manufacturers was steady. Bottling demand is seasonally higher but cheesemakers have the milk they need. Cheese output is strong to steady with some plants running close to full capacity. Demand varies from steady to lighter, with some sellers conveying that buyers have become more hesitant due to the bearish prices.

CME butter gained 2.50 cents last Monday but headed lower from there, closing Friday at $2.6250 per pound, losing 6.25 cents on the week, 57.25 cents below its Aug. 27 peak, and 73.50 cents below a year ago. Sales totaled 90 loads on the week, 6 on Monday and Tuesday, 22 on Wednesday, 30 on Thursday, and 26 on Friday.

Monday’s butter lost a penny, with 33 cars finding new homes. It was unchanged Tuesday, holding at $2.6150, lowest since Jan. 24, and a whopping 46 loads trading hands, just shy of the single-day record of 49 on Aug. 16, 2023.

Butter markets have taken a notably bearish turn and Central butter makers are aware of it. “Some expect the bears to remain for the near-term,” says DMN. Food service demand is moving along in the busier baking season but buyers are awaiting any further price declines before adding to stocks.

Churning is busy and some say it’s the busiest it has ever been during the first weeks of the autumn season. Cream is ample.

Retail butter production varies from strong to steady in the West. Bulk butter production is mixed with some running more heavily than typical due to significant churn equipment projects slotted to take place in fourth quarter.

Cream is generally available throughout the region. Domestic demand is mixed but cream sales to buyers across the border have strengthened. Butter manufacturers note domestic demand is steady to lighter and international demand is steady to stronger, according to DMN.

Grade A nonfat dry milk closed Friday at $1.3525 per pound, unchanged on the week but 13.25 cents above a year ago, with 13 sales put on the board.

The powder inched up a quarter-cent Monday, with 2 trades put on the board. It gave back a half-cent Tuesday, slipping to $1.35 on 2 sales.

Dry whey saw its Friday finish at 59.50 cents per pound, down a penny on the week but 26 cents above a year ago, on 2 CME sales for the week.

Traders left the whey unchanged Monday but inched it up a quarter-cent Tuesday, to 59.75 cents per pound, on 3 trades.

GDT slips 0.3%

The Global Dairy Trade auction’s weighted average slipped 0.3% in the second event of October, down from a 1.2% rise on Oct. 1. Volume, which has topped 80 million pounds the past three events, totaled 85.9 million pounds, up slightly from 85.6 million on Oct.

The average metric ton price, at $3,852 U.S., was up $1.00.

Lactose was down 5.8%, following a 6.7% gain on Oct. 1.

Skim milk powder was down 1.8%, after slipping 0.6%, and whole milk powder was unchanged, after rising 3.0%.

Butter was off 0.3%, following a 1.4% drop, while anhydrous milkfat was up 0.3% following a 0.1% slip.

The only gain was on Cheddar, up 4.2%, which follows a 3.8% rise Oct. 1, while GDT Mozzarella was down 8.2% after dropping 7.7%.

StoneX says the GDT 80% butterfat butter price equates to $2.8741 per pound U.S., up 3.9 cents from Oct. 1, and compares to CME butter which closed Tuesday at a bargain $2.6150.

GDT Cheddar, at $2.1327, was up 4.3 cents, and compares to Tuesday’s CME block Cheddar at a bargain $1.9375.

GDT skim milk powder averaged $1.2452 per pound, down from $1.2676, and whole milk powder averaged $1.6115 per pound, down from $1.6144. CME Grade A nonfat dry milk closed Tuesday at $1.35 per pound.