Turkey is traditionally the center of the plate for Thanksgiving, but changing consumer trends are making the retention of that coveted spot less certain.

Typically, the average consumer is only thinking about turkey once a year — Thanksgiving. This is kind of the big moment for turkey to shine, said Brian Earnest, lead animal protein economist with CoBank.

But there’s been some difficulty in terms of consumption patterns over the last couple of years. Part of that is folks are putting alternatives on the plate for Thanksgiving and cutting into what has traditionally been one center-of-the-plate animal protein, he said in a webinar.

There are 30-plus-year lows on the buy side, and poult placements are down year over year as well. Part of that is signaling coming out of last year, but a couple of other factors are also at play, he said.

Avian disease

High-pathogenic avian influenza has heavily impacted the turkey industry over the last couple of years. Avian metapneumovirus has impacted turkey supply as well.

“If you don’t have the birds on the ground … where’s the turkey going to come from?” he asked.

So there are tighter supplies this year. Harvest levels are down 13 million head year to date from 2023.

On the flip side, average live weights are higher than last year and the five-year average, but production is still down 6% to date, he said.

“Despite having larger birds, we’re not necessarily offsetting that gap in turkey supply,” he said.

Lower supply

While turkey supplies in 2023 were higher than 2022, turkey availability is still down.

“Production challenges coming through for turkey producers and overall supply is showing up in the cold storage numbers that we’re seeing,” he said.

As retailers began planning for Thanksgiving features last January, projections for turkey inventories were reported at their lowest point in four decades, signaling reduced availability in 2024, Earnest said in his new report.

However, inventories of whole turkeys in cold storage were up about 4% year-over-year when they peaked in September at 246 million pounds. But they are still down 100 million pounds from 2018 levels, he said.

“We’re starting to see those inventories make their way to the shelves, but we’re well below what we were seeing in the peak of the five-year average,” he said.

Other opportunities

Sliding demand for whole turkeys over the long term means producers should be evaluating the overall product mix more closely, he said.

“The opportunity to grow turkey consumption may be elsewhere,” he said.

Market analyst Circana reports ground turkey has shown tremendous strength this year, with retail volume sales increasing 5.5% to reach $1.9 billion in sales over the 52-week period ending Sept. 8.

“The upswing in demand for different types of turkey products reflects the changing nature of consumer preferences,” he said.