Cash receipts from Idaho farm marketings are estimated at a record high $11.3 billion for 2024, up 4% from 2023 and 29% above the 10-year average of $8.8 billion.

The state’s large livestock industry drove the gain and offset reduced crop revenue, according to the annual Financial Condition of Idaho Agriculture report by University of Idaho researchers Brett Wilder and Xiaoxue “Rita” Du.

USDA defines cash receipts as gross cash income from the sale of crops, livestock and livestock products in a calendar year. Cash receipts do not include government payments.

Idaho crop revenue is expected to be $4.3 billion, down 6% from 2023 but 20% above the 10-year average, according to UI.

Expected livestock revenue of $7 billion, an all-time high, is up by 11% from 2023 and is 34% above the 10-year average.

Livestock revenue gains from 2023 to this year include 11% in milk receipts to $3.8 billion, 10% for cattle and calves to $2.9 billion and 12% for other livestock to $321 million. Beef and milk prices increased. The beef cow herd grew slightly.

In real dollars adjusted for inflation to 2017, estimated 2024 cash receipts are 50% above the 1980-2024 average, UI reported.

High inflation over the past four years led to a 25% disparity in real versus nominal cash receipts, and “in inflation-adjusted terms, Idaho farmers earned slightly less than in 2014,” the all-time high before 2022, according to the report.

Net farm income — revenue minus costs, the farmer’s bottom line — is expected to increase by 12% in 2024 to nearly $3.3 billion, 37% above the 10-year average.

A 1% increase in revenue and a 2% drop in expenses helped. Expense declines included 8-13% for feed purchases, fertilizer, pesticides and fuel, partly offset by a 5% increase in interest expense and a 10% increase in livestock and poultry purchases, according to the UI report.

Government payments are included in the net farm income calculation. Direct government payments, which peaked in 2020 in the state, are down by an estimated 14% for 2024.

The UI-forecast 12% increase in Idaho net farm income for 2024 contrasts with the 3.5% nationwide drop that USDA’s Economic Research Service predicts. The main difference in Idaho is the livestock sector’s strong contribution proportionately, Wilder told Capital Press.

Real-dollar net farm income, inflation adjusted to 2017, was the second highest ever, behind 2022, according to the report.

As for 2025 in Idaho, “the crop sector is going to continue to be squeezed,” Wilder said during a UI ag outlook seminar in Boise Dec. 18. “I certainly don’t have high expectations that the crop sector is going to recover.”

Also next year, he expects that geopolitics and trade will be “front and center,” livestock receipts will stay strong, leveraged producers will continue to feel “economic pain,” inflation will have an impact, and fixed costs will creep higher.

“It would shock me if we hit another all-time high in cash receipts in ’25,” Wilder said in an interview. Crops likely will continue to lag livestock, and 2024 potato revenue was helped by prices that were strong early in the sales cycle.

Input costs in 2025 are expected to be the fourth highest ever — behind the 2022 record as well as 2023 and this year — even though several cost categories are expected to decrease next year, Xiaoli Etienne, UI associate professor and Idaho Wheat Commission endowed chair in commodity risk management, said at the seminar.

She expects fuel costs to decline slightly, but electricity costs to rise slightly in 2025. She expects fertilizer and chemical costs to remain similar or drop, interest expense to drop and machinery cost to remain similar. Hired labor cost may increase slightly.