It’s hard for farmers to reflect on 2024 without thoughts of 2025 intruding.

This year wasn’t bad, Idaho dairy farmer Willie Bokma said. Milk and feed prices were reasonable. Workers were in good supply. The first time Donald Trump was president, however, good workers were hard to find, he said.

He said he hopes the labor supply will hold. “I’m afraid that next year, if the rhetoric holds true … about sending them all back, it may not be that way,” said Bokma, who farms south of Twin Falls.

Farmers and others connected to agriculture cited weather, economics and regulations as shaping their fortunes in 2024 — and their hopes for 2025. Timeless features of farming, like the law of supply and demand, will endure.

But Trump’s return to the White House is expected to change the economic and regulatory climate.

Some hope the Trump administration won’t reverse progress. U.S. dairy exports are the strongest they’ve been in two years, even with China’s economy slowing, according to the U.S. Dairy Export Council.

“That’s great. We’d love to keep that going,” said Bokma.

If the new administration changes trade deals, that could be a problem, he said. “I remember the last time there were some issues with trade,” he said.

Uncertain trade picture

The U.S. exports 20% of its potatoes, according to the National Potato Council. Potato exports set a record in 2024.

“Washington potatoes are very dependent on trade,” Washington State Potato Commission executive director Chris Voigt said. “We’ll see whether we’ll be able to maintain, grow or lose markets.”

The U.S. exports 11% of beef production, according to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service. Trade is important, but unfair trade practices are a bigger concern, said Jared Brackett, a cow-calf producer southwest of Twin Falls.

Although the U.S. exports a lot of beef, it imports more. The U.S. exported 240 million pounds of beef in September, while importing 385 million pounds, according to the USDA Economic Research Service.

Ranchers want more or better trade deals, Brackett said.

He said he expects Donald Trump’s administration to be “a little more focused on things that matter to us as ag people, as beef producers.”

“We’re looking forward to seeing a new director of Interior, secretary of ag and maybe changing some policy,” he said.

Farm incomes slump

USDA Economic Research Service forecasts net farm income will fall 4.4% this year. Last year, it fell 19.5%.

The trend worries farmers, Klickitat County, Wash., wheat farmer Andy Juris said. “A lot of the guys I’m talking to are saying, ‘Man, I’ve got to get out now. I’m not going to watch my equity position go back again. I spent a decade rebuilding after last time.’”

Juris said he believes U.S. agriculture is on the verge of major economic changes.

“I would like to think that would mean a continuation of the family farm as being a primary driver of U.S. agriculture, but I don’t know if that’s a guarantee anymore,” he said.

Some tree fruit growers worry about keeping their orchards in the family, Northwest Horticultural Council President Mark Powers said.

High labor costs, lower fruit prices and more regulations are stressing growers, he said. “The bills are much larger than the returns.”

Production costs rose during COVID shutdowns, but so did crop prices, Ben Marshall, an Idaho farmer, said. “Now we are sitting here and here comes the price correction,” he said. “Guys are back to really looking at every line item to see how to squeeze this down.”

Costs move one way

USDA has yet to publish a national report on how much producers spent in 2024. As of 2023, production expenses had risen five straight years.

Fertilizer prices haven’t fallen below the 2022 spike, but they were lower in 2024 than in 2023. “Production of fertilizer has gone up and the supply is looking good,” University of Idaho economist Xiaoli Etienne said.

Fertilizer prices are forecast to fall slightly in 2025, she said. “A big risk factor is China, which puts a lot of restrictions on fertilizer exports,” she said. “China wants to ensure sufficient supply for the domestic market, as they put a high priority on food security.”

Prices of crop-protection products are projected to remain relatively flat, said Hank McDonald, Simplot Grower Solutions Mountain West regional manager.

“We expect market conditions in 2025 to be very similar to what we’ve experienced this past year,” he said.

Labor costs went up. U.S. farms and ranches employed about 797,000 workers the week of Oct. 6-12, up 3% from the year before, according to the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service. The average wage was $19.11 an hour, up 2%.

The survey foreshadows an increase in the minimum wage for guest foreign farmworkers, which raises the floor for many U.S. workers, too.

Washington and Oregon’s H-2A wage is expected to increase by 3% to $19.82 an hour.

California’s rate is expected to rise 1.1% to $19.97, while Idaho’s is anticipated to rise 1.8% to $16.88.

Labor, Etienne said, “is the one thing a lot of the producers are saying is really eating up margin.”

The U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts ongoing foreign troubles and OPEC, the oil supply cartel, cuts will push oil prices up during the next few months, but global oil production then will pick up forcing lower prices later in 2025.

Brackett, the cow-calf producer in Idaho, said he hopes fuel prices will decline and beef prices will stay up.

Cattle prices are historically high, according to the USDA Economic Research Service. “Expenses are up, of course, but prices are good for livestock,” Brackett said.

Equipment parts and services aren’t increasing in costs like they did during COVID shutdowns, but prices aren’t falling either, Agri-Service vice president of product support Rob Fisher said. “For the most part, parts have a growth in cost every year,” he said.

The bright side

Washington winter wheat production was up this year, but the gains were not uniform around the state. February and March were dry and that hurt, said Juris, the wheat grower in Klicktat County.

“It was a challenging year,” he said. His goal for next year is to keep going. “I think we’re going to try to keep our heads down and survive. The budgets are a lot tighter,” he said.

Some are looking past current misfortunes to better times.

Lamb Weston closed its potato processing plant in Connell, Wash., on Oct. 1. Voigt, the director of the Washington Potato Commission, said he expects other processors to eventually fill the void.

“This coming year is really going to be kind of a temporary blip,” he said. “Overall, next year, acres could be down between 5% and 10%,” he said. “Then we’ll get back up to where we always are, around that 165,000 acres.”

Piles of unsold grass seed are weighing down prices this year. “That seed is really orphaned seed in the market. It doesn’t have a home,” Oregon Grass Seed Bargaining Association Executive Director Mark Simmons said.

Business friendly federal policies could stoke demand for grass seed among homebuilders, he said. “Prices for farmers are always better when supplies are tight,” he said.

The market rebounded this year for hazelnuts, another signature Oregon crop. Growers had endured several years of low prices. At harvest, farmers and packers set prices roughly 60% higher than last year.

Stinkbugs and bad weather damaged hazelnut crops in Turkey and Italy, said Larry George, president of the George Packing Co. Meanwhile, Oregon had superb harvest conditions, he said.

All indications point to prices continuing to creep up in 2025, George said. “We don’t see any trend whatsoever that would make the prices weaken,” he said.

High interest rates discouraged construction and hindered demand for lumber, said timber analyst Bryan Beck, president of the Beck Group.

Sawmills curtailed production, decreasing inventories, he said. “We’re seeing reduced output to match up to where demand is at,” Beck said. If interest rates decline, demand for logs will go up and lift the timber industry’s prospects, he said.

Berry growers face rising production costs and competition from inexpensive foreign fruit, Oregon Raspberry and Blackberry Administrator Darcy Kochis said.

Nevertheless, new varieties, such as Columbia Star blackberries, are boosting volumes.