FRESNO COUNTY, Calif. — Standing in the Central California mud, Daniel Hartwig was a happy man. The surplus of water delivered by a procession of winter storms had flooded the previously dusty farmland with possibilities.

The difference compared to the past two years couldn’t be more stark. A multi-year drought had forced him to remove nearly 20% of his parched almond trees that couldn’t survive the prolonged dry spell.

The storms have filled reservoirs and rivers — and piled snow high in the Sierra Nevada — leaving Hartwig and other Central California farmers with a welcome dilemma. For the first time in years, they would not need to lean on the stressed aquifer for irrigation water.

“We are basically planning on not touching groundwater at all as long as the (surface) water allocation is sufficient,” the Fresno-area farmer said. “It’s a complete 180 from where we were at in December and January.”

But a warning looms. The water-supply outlook that turned from pitiful to plentiful in less than a winter in much of the West leaves agricultural producers encouraged but prompts scientists to caution that the impacts of the drought will linger.

Changing plans

In southeast Oregon, farmer Rob Wagstaff for the first time in two years plans to grow corn on ground in the upper reaches of an irrigation district mostly supplied by the Owyhee Reservoir.

He had fallowed it in 2022.

“If we can get that snowpack in here with the right weather pattern, we will have sufficient water to successfully grow all the crops we have planned,” said Wagstaff, who farms near Adrian.

In southeast Oregon last year, Wagstaff idled about 200 acres intended for corn. This year, he plans to plant 120 acres of corn and grow more wheat there.

“We are still conservative,” Wagstaff said. He makes plans several months ahead for his 5,000-acre farm, which also grows onions, beets and potatoes.

To the northwest in Harney County, Ore., the snowpack in late March was still good, and rancher Rusty Inglis was cautiously optimistic.

“Snowpack is better, and a lot is coming off and going into the Harney Basin,” the Oregon Cattlemen’s Association district vice president said. “You never know until later on what’s going to happen.”

Colorado comeback

Far to the south, even long-depleted Lake Powell and Lake Mead, the keystone reservoirs along the Colorado River, are looking better even though they are far from refilling to their combined capacity of 52 million acre-feet. The snowpack in the Upper Colorado River headwaters was 125% of normal in mid-March.

“While we do have a rather plentiful snowpack this year compared to the last three years, with the reservoir storage deficits, one year of good snowpack is not enough to get the situation, and Lake Powell and Lake Mead, out of the weeds,” said Karl Wetlaufer, hydrologist and assistant supervisor with the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service Colorado Snow Survey.

Weather, temperature and precipitation reduced runoff in the drought years — even when the snowpack inched closer to average — partly because dry soils soaked up a portion of the water before it made it to the reservoirs, Wetlaufer said.

Utah’s snowpack as of mid-March was more than 150% of normal. It is expected to contribute to above-average Colorado River flows forecast for this year, said Jordan Clayton, NRCS Utah Snow Survey supervisor and data collection officer.

Among the major watersheds that contribute to the Upper Colorado River Basin, snowpack ranges from 117% of normal in the Upper Green River watershed to 140% of normal in the White and Yampa watershed, he said.

Forecast inflow at Lake Powell was a robust 8.1 million acre-feet as of the Utah Snow Survey’s March 1 report. It was expected to be a bit higher this month, Clayton said. The lake’s total capacity is 24.3 million acre-feet.

“Certainly an ongoing big story is the Colorado River crisis, and they’re not talking about that going away anytime soon” given preexisting shortfalls, Chris Scheuring, California Farm Bureau senior counsel and a water lawyer, said in mid-March. The state holds the most senior water right.

‘Pivotal year?’

The Colorado River supplies irrigation water to farmers in Arizona and Southern California, but the rest of California looks to the Sierra Nevada snowpack to refill reservoirs and rivers.

Record-high snowpack — 56 feet of snow fell in parts of the Sierra Nevada — stretches from north to south, and “the rim reservoirs of the Central Valley are in a much better situation absent some flood impacts,” Scheuring said. “State and federal projects are going to deliver water to farms. We had three to four really bad years, so I hope it’s a pivotal year and not just a one-off and back into drought mode.”

In the Sierra Nevada, the 1982-83 water year is considered to have the highest snow-water equivalent on record, and “levels for this year are either exceeding those amounts or are a close second,” said Greg Norris, state conservation engineer with NRCS in California.

Sierra snow-water equivalent March 15 was 180% of normal in the north, 228% in the central section and 271% in the south, he said. Snowpack in all three areas is critical for agricultural irrigation water supply in the Central Valley and elsewhere.

“The outlook for water availability to agriculture is obviously better than last year, but it is still a little early to determine exactly the final amounts that will be available to the irrigation districts as reservoirs are still recovering from the last few years,” Norris said.

“Unless conditions change drastically, we can expect the snowpack to provide solid runoff into the state’s reservoir systems later in the season, providing more flexibility for agricultural water use,” he said.

Reservoir levels April 4 included Lake Shasta at 106% of average, Lake Oroville at 116% and New Melones Lake at 94%, according to the California Department of Water Resources.

California’s overall snowpack as of April 3 was 237% of average, the department reported.

Washington average

Washington state’s snowpack was about average as of late March, said Scott Pattee of the NRCS. As a percentage of normal, it generally drops from south to north, particularly in the west. North Puget Sound received below-normal snowfall.

But east of the Cascade Range, snowpack was lower in the Yakima area and higher farther north into the Okanogan region.

Washington’s total precipitation for the water year that began Oct. 1 remained below normal, “and the reason for that is that we had almost nonexistent precipitation in October,” Pattee said. “And the end result of that is in several areas, soil moisture has a huge deficit, especially in the mountains.”

Oregon above normal

Oregon’s snowpack is well above normal statewide but varies by location. Several years of drought persists in Central Oregon, despite the recently above-normal snowpack. The prolonged dry spell has pressured the region’s reservoirs and dried the soil.

Ranchers “are going to wait and see, and hope for the best,” Inglis, the Harney County rancher, said. “They’re going to turn out when they can,” he said of summer cattle grazing.

Ranchers who winnowed down their herds during the driest periods may start thinking about rebuilding.

However, they won’t make those changes quickly because it is hard to rebuild a herd, he said.

About 100 miles to the east, the Owyhee Basin snowpack “is still increasing and there’s a significant amount of snow out there,” Ontario-area farmer and Owyhee Irrigation District board member Bruce Corn said March 21.

For example, snowpack measuring 172% of normal at the key Mud Flat site in Idaho “really bodes well this late in the season.”

Last year’s initially low water supply outlook prompted farmers to plant more short-season grains and move some crops, such as sugar beets and onions, to where they could best use available water, he said. The board upped the allotment amid unusually heavy precipitation in late spring, which “made a real difference to finish crops.”

Idaho looking up

Idaho’s water supply as of March 1 varied by location despite the near- to above-normal snowpack, according to the NRCS. Supply was expected to be limited for some users of the Upper Snake River and Oakley Reservoir water unless the snowpack increases substantially or there is a wet spring. The reservoir is about 22 miles south of Burley.

To the west, the Boise River Basin supply is looking good.

One concern is in the central mountains, where hydrologists are monitoring Magic Reservoir due to low storage and a smaller snowpack in February. The outlook for the reservoir, which is between Jerome and Ketchum, stood to improve if spring was wetter than normal.

Welcome shift

Depending on their locations, Western farmers have welcomed the break in the drought.

Near Fresno, where Hartwig considers an almond tree a 25-year investment, almond acreage on one of the operation’s ranches was reduced by about 12% in 2021 — the trees were 15 years old — and by 6% in 2022 “just because of the water situation,” he said.

Last year, about 40% of the farm’s ground was fallowed, including nut trees and annual crops.

This year is a different story. Fresno Irrigation District surface water deliveries could go for seven months or longer this year compared to three months last year, a month in 2021 and five to six months on average, said board president and Fresno County Farm Bureau CEO Ryan Jacobsen. The “absolutely phenomenal year” should also benefit farmers in 2024 by providing some planning certainty.

Hartwig said no immediate increase in acres is slated, as it is yet to be determined how much water the farm will receive and “we’re too far into the growing season to up and shift plans.”

The farm aims to take additional water and recharge the aquifer, so “when we go back into a drought situation, we maximize our ability to farm,” he said.

He may plant more acres in the fall, “depending on how full the reservoirs stay and how the water outlook is going into 2024.”