BAKER CITY, Ore. — Mark Ward won’t stop worrying about water — he’s a farmer in a valley with a climate much closer to desert than to rainforest — but as 2023 wanes he’s feeling optimistic.

Ward, whose family grows potatoes, peppermint, wheat and field corn in the Baker Valley, is grateful for the water he can see.

And for the water he can’t.

“It’s encouraging,” Ward said.

The palpable evidence is Phillips Reservoir. The impoundment on the Powder River, about 17 miles southwest of Baker City, is holding about 23,500 acre-feet of water — 32% of capacity.

That’s the most water in the reservoir in mid-November since 2017.

Phillips supplies irrigation water to about 30,000 acres in the Baker Valley, including some of the Wards’ fields.

Compared with the depths of the drought in 2021, the situation is promising, Ward said. In that year the reservoir, even during the peak of the spring runoff when it reaches its maximum volume, Phillips stayed below 17,000 acre-feet.

One acre-foot of water would cover an acre of flat ground to a depth of 1 foot, and is equal to about 326,000 gallons.

Based on the current volume, Ward said it’s plausible that, with an above-average snowpack this winter in the Elkhorn Mountains, the reservoir will be full, or close to it, late next spring. That hasn’t happened since June 2017.

El Nino outlook

Although meteorologists forecast an El Nino weather pattern this winter, which typically results in relatively dry conditions, Art Douglas, professor emeritus of atmospheric sciences at Creighton University in Omaha, Neb., told the Capital Press that he doesn’t expect a typical El Nino.

Due to warm water in the Atlantic Ocean, Douglas forecasts a relatively warm and wet winter and spring.

“Farmers in the Pacific Northwest should be smiling,” he said.

Ward certainly is happy — both with the reservoir level and with that other, invisible, water — the moisture in the soil in his family’s fields.

“It’s the best we’ve seen in three years,” Ward said. “It’s not fantastic, but it’s better.”

August storm

He attributes the damp soil, even after a drier than usual fall, to the record-breaking rainstorm that soaked Baker County on Aug. 21.

More than 3 inches of rain fell that day in parts of Baker County as the remnants of Hurricane Hilary brought tropical weather to the high desert of Northeast Oregon. Ward measured about 2.8 inches in his potato fields.

“All that rain we got in August had an impact,” he said.

Based on the current conditions and the winter forecast, Ward said he’s pretty confident in preparing to plant crops on all of his family’s cultivated ground in 2024. During the drought that started in 2020 the Wards had to let some of their land go fallow.

Reservoir report

In southern Baker County, Unity Reservoir, which has about one-third the capacity of Phillips, was holding about 7,600 acre-feet of water on Wednesday, Nov. 15, about 30% full.

That’s about 1,400 acre-feet more than the historical average for the date, and 800 acre-feet more than in November 2022, said Shawn Klaus, who manages the Burnt River Irrigation District.

“It’s a really nice holdover for the end of the (irrigation) season,” Klaus said. “The wet August helped.”

Klaus said Unity almost certainly will refill next spring, even if the snowpack is somewhat below average.

In southern Union County, Thief Valley Reservoir, which went dry in several summers over the past decade, was at 28% of capacity on Nov. 15.

Doug Birdsall, manager of the Powder Valley Water Control District, said the district’s two reservoirs, Pilcher Creek and Wolf Creek, both west of North Powder, are at about 15% capacity this fall, similar to last year.

Birdsall said the reservoirs should refill next spring if the snowpack is decent.

In Wallowa County, Matt Melchiorsen, the new manager of the Wallowa Lake Irrigation District, said Nov. 16 that the lake, a major source of water for farms and ranches in the Wallowa Valley, was about 8 feet below full.

Predicting the supply of irrigation water for next year is difficult, he said. Typically the district starts tapping stored water from the lake after July 4. Prior to that, “live water” — runoff from the Wallowa Mountains, is sufficient to meet irrigation needs.

Elsewhere in NE Oregon

Although no part of Baker or Grant counties is in drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, the situation isn’t as promising to the north.

Most of Umatilla (79%) and Morrow (72%) counties are in moderate drought. That’s the least severe of the four drought categories — moderate, severe, extreme and exceptional.

Almost half of Union County, in the northern half, is in moderate drought.

Bob Roselle, a wheat farmer near Adams, east of Pendleton, said the drought cut his crop’s yield by 10% to 20% in some places.

“We still get decent crops, but they weren’t what they would have been if we’d had late spring rains,” he said.

On the positive side, Roselle said relatively abundant rains in late summer and fall have given next year’s wheat crop a strong start. Because wheat crops aren’t irrigated, farmers depend solely on rain and snow to keep their soil, and crops, in good condition.

Rainfall at the Eastern Oregon Regional Airport in Pendleton was above average in September (0.9 inches, average of 0.57) and October (1.26 inches, average of 1.05). And November exceeded average in just the first two weeks, with 1.49 inches as of Nov. 15. The November average is 1.43 inches.

Looking ahead, Roselle said he doesn’t have a good sense of what to expect.

“Our weather pattern seems to be changing,” he said. “You really don’t have a consistency as far as what’s average and what’s not.”

Temperatures above average

Ample rain this fall isn’t the only positive for dryland wheat farmers, said Don Wysocki, a soil scientist with the Oregon State University Extension Service at Blue Mountain Community College in Pendleton.

Temperatures have also been above average.

The average high temperature at the Eastern Oregon Regional Airport was 65.6 degrees in October, compared with an average of 64.1. The average low that month was 42.7 degrees, 2 degrees above average.

November has been even balmier so far, compared with average. Through Nov. 15, the average high at the airport was 56.3 degrees, compared with an average of 48.9. The average low was 39.6, more than 6 degrees warmer than average.

“So the crop’s off to a fairly good start,” Wysocki said. “Everything’s established well, and it’s like a runner running a race. He had a good start out of the blocks.”

Although McKay and Cold Springs reservoirs in Umatilla County are at about 12% capacity, with an average snowpack this winter, both should refill by next spring, said George Perry, a hydrologist with the National Weather Service in Pendleton.

“Recent rains in the last few weeks have improved overall drought conditions over the Blue Mountains and the lower Columbia Basin though most of the area remains at a moderate drought level,” Perry said.

Although as Douglas, the Creighton meteorologist noted, El Nino winters typically result in warmer, drier winters in the Northwest, Perry said six to eight El Nino winters since 1940 have had above average snowfall in the region.

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