Drought continued to take a heavy toll on U.S. hay stocks in 2022, but the Pacific Northwest bucked the trend with year-over-year increases.

Dec. 1 hay stocks on U.S. farms were down 9% from a year earlier. That decline followed a 6% year-over-year drop the previous year.

Dec. 1 hay stocks in the continental U.S. were down 7.1 million tons year over year to 71.9 million tons.

The December hay stocks number is an important gauge for how much hay is left on hand for the first quarter of the year, typically the highest-use period, analysts reported in the CME Daily Livestock Report.

“Three years of drought for a large area of the U.S. have left hay stocks depleted, and the December 2022 figures were harrowingly low,” the lowest on record, they said.

In addition to the year-over-year decline, the Dec. 1 stocks were 16.4% below the previous 10-year average, said Derrell Peel, extension livestock marketing specialist with Oklahoma State University.

While hay stocks were up in 21 states year over year, they were down significantly in the top 10 states for hay stocks, he said.

“We’re pretty good in the Pacific Northwest,” said Reed Findlay, University of Idaho Extension educator.

Dec. 1 hay stocks in the Pacific Northwest were positive with a 6.4% year-over-year increase in Idaho’s hay stocks in 2022, up 150,000 tons to 2.5 million tons.

Oregon’s stocks were up a whopping 53%, an increase of 490,000 tons to 1.4 million tons. Washington’s stocks were up 9%, an increase of 100,000 tons to 1.2 million tons.

Those higher stocks in the region will probably put downward pressure on hay prices, he said.

Hay stocks from the Dakotas to Arizona are really good, but going back toward the East, they aren’t, he said.

“Anything in the lower part of the U.S. is really dragging us down. All across the South they”re down, all their hay stocks are down,” he said.

Stocks are down 37% in Texas, 30% in Oklahoma and 21% in New Mexico. They’re also down 36% in Nebraska and 33% in Colorado.

The production of all hay in the U.S. in 2022 at 112.8 million tons was down 6.2% year over year on 1.2 million fewer harvested acres and a 3.8% decline in yield.

USDA is projecting that all hay production will be up in 2023, Findlay said.

“Production should recover and be like it was in 2021,” he said.

But those projections are like projections for the weather, and could be totally wrong, he said.

“Things are changing as we speak,” he said.

The production of alfalfa hay in the U.S. in 2022 at 48 million tons was down 2.6% year over year on 330,000 fewer harvested acres and a slight decline in yield.

The production of other hay in the U.S. in 2022 at 64.8 million tons was down 8.6% year over year on 857,000 fewer harvested acres and a 6.5% decline in yield.

Location, stocks (1,000 tons) and year-over-year change 

Idaho – 2,500, up 6.4%

Oregon – 1,410, up 53.3%

Washington – 1,200, up 9.1%

U.S. – 71,911, down 9.0%

Source: USDA NASS

Idaho 

All hay production – 5.3 million tons, up 17%

Harvested acres – 1.4 million, up 170, 000 acres

Yield (tons per acre – 3.78, up from 3.67

Alfalfa production – 4.6 million tons (top in the country), up 16%

Harvested acres -1.1 million, up 100,000 acres

Yield (tons per acre) – 4.30, up from 4.10

Other hay production – 616,000 tons, down 15%

Harvested acres –350,000, up 70,000 acres

Yield (tons per acre) – 2.20, no change

Oregon 

All hay production – 2.6 million tons, up 7.5%

Harvested acres – 820,000, down 70, 000 acres

Yield (tons per acre) – 3.20, up from 2.74

Alfalfa production – 1.5 million tons, up 13.2%

Harvested acres – 350,0000, down 50,000 acres

Yield (tons per acre) – 4.40 up from 3.40.

Other hay production – 1.1 million tons, up 0.3%

Harvested acres – 490,000, down 20,000 acres

Yield (tons per acre) – 2.30, up from 2.20

Washington 

All hay production – 2.8 million tons, up 8.2%

Harvested acres – 500,000, down 60,000 acres

Yield (tons per acre) – 4.26, up from 3.61

Alfalfa production – 768,000 tons, down 5.4%

Harvested acres – 360,000, down 30,000 acres

Yield (tons per acre) – 5.20 up from 4.60

Other hay production – 899,000 tons, up 17%

Harvested acres – 1.0 million, no change

Yield (tons per acre) – 2.10, up from 2.00

Source: USDA NASS