It could take up to two years for the Columbia River Treaty between the U.S. and Canada to be ratified, the leader of a Northwest river transportation advocacy group says.

“A lot of people think, ‘Oh, the treaty’s agreed to; it’s settled, it’s all done,'” Neil Maunu, executive director for the Pacific Northwest Waterways Association, told Washington Grain Commission board members Sept. 24. “They continue to negotiate, because we don’t have an agreement that’s in force, and we don’t have a plan for operations as of Sept. 16.

“And that’s OK for now, until the end of December, because it’s the dry season,” Maunu said.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and other agencies are planning for normal operations, he said, calling it the “pre-interim period.”

An “interim period” would begin around January and last up to two years before the treaty can be ratified by the U.S. Senate.

“We’re hoping that happens in January; we’re hoping also that between now and January, the U.S. and Canada agree on an assured operations plan,” the annual plan where the two countries determine river and electricity flow, he said. “It’s like the playbook for the river system.”

PNWA is a lobbying group, with more than 150 members in the region, working to educate congressional staff.

“We tell our delegation we’re so happy there’s an agreement that’s pending,” Maunu said. “We need certainty to this river system, supply chain and to our membership.”

Details of the treaty, however, have not been made available, Maunu said. More information has been made available through Canada’s government than the U.S. Department of State, he said, “and that’s OK.”

“Until the whole system completes modeling and can understand what the effects of this agreement are going to have on navigation, irrigation and transportation, we can’t say, ‘This is the best thing since sliced bread,'” Maunu said.

Flood control

Pre-planned flood control expired Sept. 16. For the last 60 years, the U.S. relied upon almost 9 million acre-feet of storage in Canada.

Moving forward, there will be less than half of that, Maunu said.

In 60% of average years, there should be virtually no change in the river system.

One out of every 10 years would be a flood year, and also probably not mean much change.

PNWA works with the Corps and stakeholders to determine how channel depths and flows in the other years would affect tugs and towboats on the river.

Based on initial information, “We’re still guaranteed a 14-foot by 250-foot wide channel upriver,” Maunu said. “From what we saw, there’s no dramatic flow changes that would cause us any concern for pushing barges up or down river. I’m asterisk-ing that until we’ve really fully gone through the data.”

Potential impacts

The federal commitment made in December with four regional Tribes and the states of Oregon and Washington over the four lower Snake River dams includes a clause to consider re-examining existing environmental impact statements.

Corps data on channel depth and river flow made from modeling for the Columbia River Treaty will likely inform any decision to proceed with some type of assessment or new environmental impact statement, Maunu said.