Market analysts say the deals Ukraine and Russia signed with Turkey and the United Nations to export grain could push world wheat prices downward.

“It’s going to allow wheat to more freely move out of the Black Sea,” said Dan Steiner, grain merchandiser with Morrow County Grain Growers in Boardman, Ore.

Steiner estimated 10 to 20 ships were in Black Sea ports. Those ships will be able to load and depart quickly. The wheat has already been sold, Steiner said.

The agreements last 120 days, Steiner said.

“So this is not like the end of the war,” he said.

“…There’s been grain leaking out of Ukraine since the war started,” he said. “Some of it’s going overland on trucks, some is going by rail. … Russia’s been stealing some of it. Who knows where it’s all going?”

Soft white wheat ranged from $8.90 to $9.35 per bushel Friday on the Portland market.

The day the deals were announced, wheat futures dropped 50 cents, then rebounded about 40 cents, said Byron Behne, Northwest Grain Growers senior merchant in Walla Walla, Wash.

That demonstrates the volatility in the market, he said.

“We can’t really seem to string together more than a couple days in a row of higher prices,” he said.

The deals seem mostly focused on the ships that have been trapped since the war began, and not necessarily loading out new grain, Behne said.

Behne pointed to industry “consternation” about how the ships would be insured. He thinks insurance companies will likely be game, so long as there’s official government backing of some sort for premiums.

“It doesn’t really help that Russia continues to fire missiles at and around the ports that these things are supposed to be shipping from,” he said. “The market’s taking it as fact that this is going to happen — it might happen, but I don’t think it will be at a pace that really significantly changes the global balance sheets.”

Prices could still go down, Behne said, pointing to a large white wheat crop. A delayed start to harvest means farmers and landlords haven’t yet begun selling their wheat, which would put pressure on prices, he said.

“If futures don’t find a reason to rally, white wheat prices will probably be under some pressure at some point,” he said. “As volatile as things are, you’re talking a dollar either way, probably, depending on the headlines of the day.”

Steiner recommends growers watch the cash market. The trade deals make good headlines, but don’t necessarily translate into more sales, he said.