California’s Proposition 12, an animal welfare measure approved by voters in 2018, took effect Jan. 1. Now, experts are exploring its impacts.

The legislation banned the sale of eggs, pork and veal products in California unless production facilities meet specific animal-confinement standards. Opponents predicted it would lead to egg and pork shortages and skyrocketing prices. Is that happening?

Experts say Proposition 12’s impacts thus far have been minimal. However, they also say it may be months before Proposition 12’s ripple effects are reflected in bacon and egg prices.

“There are no obvious impacts yet,” said Daniel Sumner, professor of agriculture and resource economics at the University of California-Davis. “The sky isn’t falling.”

In the lead-up to Proposition 12’s implementation, some opponents predicted the price of fresh pork products covered under the legislation would increase 60%. Sumner, in an economic study, makes the more modest prediction that the average price of uncooked pork will rise by 7.7%, or about 25 cents per pound.

But even that price increase likely won’t be for months, he said. That’s because Proposition 12 specifically regulates the space breeding sows must have. The meat currently in supermarkets is from pigs that weren’t yet raised under these requirements.

Sumner estimates Proposition 12’s required sow space will translate into $5 of added costs per pig leaving the farrowing barn.

The economist also predicts added expenses at the processing stage due to tracking and segregation requirements. His studies estimate processing expenses will add 19 to 21 cents per pound to the final price of compliant pork products.

But no one knows for sure yet, he said.

“We don’t know what’s really going to happen at retail,” said Sumner. “We just know that every time you make something a little more complicated, you make it a little more expensive.”

Nate Rose, spokesman for the California Grocers Association, agreed it’s too early to make accurate pricing forecasts.

“On pricing, I think it’s too soon to tell,” he said.

Rose said retailers are talking with pork producers to negotiate new contracts as producers move into compliance, but price changes likely won’t be seen for 3 to 6 months.

Proposition 12 also regulates the egg industry, requiring eggs sold in California to come from cage-free operations.

Retailers, said Rose, don’t seem as concerned about inflated egg prices, because California has been moving toward a predominately cage-free market for a long time.

According to a USDA special report, 96% of egg-laying hens in California were already in cage-free systems by September 2021. California has historically produced only 35% of its egg supply, so the legislation is felt most by those outside the state, said Lesa Vold, spokeswoman for the Egg Industry Center.

But even there, the cage-free market has been edging upward. According to the Humane League, in 2015, 6% of U.S. hens were cage-free. In 2021, 30% were.

“To be honest, no one (among our retail members) seems to be talking about eggs,” said Rose, of the grocery association. “Pork has kind of been the sticking point.”

Sumner, the economist, agreed.

“I’m not saying Proposition 12 is easy on egg operations, but compared to pork, this just isn’t that big a stretch for the industry,” said Sumner.

Sumner predicts that eventually, cage-free eggs — once a specialty product — will no longer get a higher markup because the category will become standard.