USDA economists anticipate the California walnut crop to be smaller this season than the record breaking 2023 harvest because of a mild winter — walnuts require a relatively large number of chill hours.

“Decreases in yields should reduce production and may put upward pressure on walnut prices,” a recent report from the USDA Economic Research Service stated.

“Growers have been challenged these past few years, but there’s optimism that we’re turning the corner in a positive direction,” said Christine Lott, California Walnut Board spokeswoman.

“The trees seem to be in a good place, prices seem to be rebounding,” she added.

Walnut production reached 824,000 tons in 2023 but is expected to fall to 770,000 tons this season, a drop of 6.5%.

Walnuts are alternate bearing in nature, and that also will contribute to the lower harvest this season, Lott said.

The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service is scheduled to provide a definitive estimate on walnut production in early September.

Price per pound

Walnut prices increased from 30 cents per pound in 2022 to 42 cents per pound in 2023.

In the last decade, the price of walnuts has dropped dramatically, though. In 2014, for example, walnuts were above $1.50 per pound — that’s above $2 per pound when adjusted for inflation. Since that point there’s been a gradual decline.

Because the walnut crop was such high quality in 2023, it sold very well, and that’s helped clear out inventory. Lott said that should spur greater grower returns.

Acreage update

Walnut acreage hasn’t changed much and has hovered around 400,000 acres in recent years, according to industry estimates.

A California Walnut Board report from consulting firm Land IQ suggests 13,500 new walnut acres came into production this season and about 11,700 acres were removed.

However, the number of walnut producing acres could decrease as changes in weather and market conditions affect growers’ expectations about profits and yields.

Lott said orchards that have been removed were filled with older trees with declining yields. New orchards with younger trees should stabilize production for the industry.

Yield per acre

In 2023, cool weather helped boost walnut yields to 2.14 tons per acre, the second highest yield ever. (The record is 2.19 tons per acre in 2016.)

However, following a warm winter, economists expect walnut yields to reach roughly 2 tons per acre this season, which would be just above the five-year average.

Around the globe

U.S. walnut growers account for about 25% of global production and 45% of global exports by volume.

China, Chile, Turkey and Ukraine make up over half the export market.

While other countries’ exports are down roughly 4% over the past year, U.S. exports are 17% higher.

The largest increase in shipments was to the European Union, which rose about 43,000 tons.

Smaller volumes were headed to the United Kingdom and India, but exports to those countries increased about 50%.

Lott said the walnut industry is looking to expand market opportunities as well as increase consumption domestically and in existing export destinations.

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