The USDA Economic Research Service expects near-record almond production in California orchards to put downward pressure on prices, but that could be offset by more export demand.

Foreign shipments for 2023-24 year to date of approximately 1.7 billion pounds (shelled equivalent) are the second highest on record, according to the USDA Economic Research Service.

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The increase was driven by a surge in shipments to India.

When retaliatory tariffs were lifted by India in September, the almond industry was ready to pounce.

The Almond Board of California targeted the south Asian country weeks later with advertisements during the Cricket World Cup and Diwali, an important holiday that includes gifts.

“We believe those ads work, and we also know India is an extremely important market and our largest export market. We are doing everything that makes sense there,” said Rick Kushman, Almond Board of California spokesman.

Overall, the U.S. — and that means California, where almost all production occurs — grows 80% of the world almond supply and supplies about 85% of the global export market.

Higher foreign shipments

Almond exports were about 6% higher through May than in 2022-23 and 11% higher than the five-year average.

Kushman said previous years included barriers such as war, inflation and COVID-19 disrupting workplaces and creating shipping problems that caused backlogs.

Many of those issues have been resolved, and that, along with India’s return, presented opportunities, Kushman added.

Year-to-date exports to India had risen 23%. Shipments to the United Arab Emirates were 20% higher.

The tariffs in India were 5 cents per pound on in-shell almonds and 11 cents per pound on shelled almonds. Their removal appears to have made the U.S. nuts substantially more competitive in the Asian country.

The UAE was one of the markets identified by the industry as having huge potential. “We’re looking at a few others. We’re looking at Morocco. The regulatory and trade barriers aren’t massive” while nuts are a big part of their culture and diet, Kushman said.

Almond export gains typically have coincided with decreases in inventories.

The Almond Board of California estimated carryout for the 2023-24 season at 625 million pounds, which would be a 22% decrease from 2022-23 and similar to the carryout following the record-breaking 3.1 billion pound harvest in 2020-21.

Bumper crop, lower acreage

A USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service report pegged almond production at 2.8 billion pounds this fall, which would be 13% larger than the 2023 crop and 16% above the 10-year average.

The higher harvest this season is due to increased yields, not acreage.

An April report by consulting firm Land IQ placed California’s almond bearing acreage at 1.37 million acres, down about 600.

It was the industry’s first drop in bearing acreage since 1995.

Yield per acre for 2024 is forecast at 2,030 pounds thanks to favorable weather during bloom. That yield is just off the 10-year average of 2,111 pounds per acre.

In 2022, California was in a prolonged and severe drought, and the yield was 1,910 pounds per acre.

In 2023, the yield was 1,790 pounds per acre as almond pollination was disrupted by storms.